One of the most rewarding experiences in baseball analytics is finding the breakout pitcher ahead of time. I’ve got the projected values and the actual values to dive into.
Top 150 Breakouts
First we go into the top 150 in ADP. These are the pitchers who had big pre-season expectations and went above and beyond.
Breakout #1: Jacob Misiorowski
ADP 120
Projection: 139 IP, 158 SO, 4.06 ERA, 1.26 WHIP
2026 Result: 175 IP, 252 SO, 1.80 ERA, 0.80 WHIP
Misiorowski does not require much deep-diving. He’s a unicorn with a fastball that touched 104 this year and averaged almost 101mph. We knew he could throw that hard, we just didn’t know he’d actually do it almost 1,700 times.
But the biggest difference-maker was the command. After a minor league career with high walk rates and questionable secondary pitches, it seemed to a lot of us like he was destined to be a closer. What was hard to see coming was the 31% Ball% he posted on his heater and the 32% mark overall.
Misiorowski’s 1.64 JA SIERA and 0.80 WHIP are numbers you might not see again. There have been just four seasons below a 0.85 WHIP going back to 2016, when the game started transforming.
2016 Kershaw: 0.722026 Misiorowski: 0.802019 Verlander: 0.802022 Verlander: 0.832025 Eovaldi: 0.85
It’s a ridiculous thing to do.
The Lesson: Bet on outlier talent.
Not having a deep pitch mix matters a whole lot less when you’re piping 100mph fastballs with 7.5 foot extension.
The Worry: Injuries.
This will be the conversation for 2027. Misiorowski is likely going to cost you a first round pick, and he’s coming off a year where he threw more triple-digit pitches than (probably) anybody in human history. And he’s not even done yet with their postseason about to begin. Being 6’7’’ is a benefit here, and there’s plenty of room for him to back off a bit next year and still be elite. But early round high-velo pitcher picks are super risky, and Misiorowski is no exception.
Breakout #2: Cam Schlittler
ADP 125
Projection: 131 IP, 131 SO, 3.90 ERA, 1.26 WHIP
2026 Result: 194 IP, 239 SO, 1.95 ERA, 0.92 WHIP
His approach is Misiorowski-esque. Schlittler broke out last year and made a big statement late last year and in the postseason. In 2026, he fired 44% four-seamers, 26% cutters, and 19% sinkers. That’s a whole lot of fastballs. My critique of him was that I didn’t know if he could manage big volume, and I didn’t know if the non-fastballs could carry him.
He averaged 98 on the four-seamer and 95 on the cutter. Throwing a cutter at 95 mph is the more impressive and meaningful velocity signal. Cutters are all the rage these days, and for good reason.
Schlittler posted a 15.2% SwStr% with a 33.1% Ball%. He was in the zone a bunch and throwing a bunch of hard stuff that moved different ways. A hitter could sit “fastball”, but that doesn’t help when there are three options that all move differently.
The Lesson: Bet on velo and fastball variation
A cutter is effectively a slider when you pair it with heavy four-seam usage. And when you’re throwing a cutter this hard (most are in the upper-80s or low-90s), it’s like a super-slider.
The Worry: Injuries.
Same as Misiorowski. The top three at SP next year with Mis, Skubal, and Schlittler. So you’re investing a second-round pick on a guy who will end up adding 60+ innings to his previous season total.
It’s probably not a pick I’ll be advising, but not because I think Schlittler isn’t a top three pitcher in the league.
Bonus Lesson: Mid-Round Upside
It seems that every year we get a few top 10 SP seasons from guys that went after pick 100. There’s a lot less risk you’re taking on in rounds 7-10, so we want to hammer the super-talented and high-stuff guys in that range in the future.
Breakout #3: Gavin Williams
ADP 142
Projection: 163 IP, 166 SO, 3.96 ERA, 1.30 WHIP
2026 Result: 184 IP, 248 SO, 3.76 ERA, 1.11 WHIP
It’s not a coincidence that the top breakout pitchers are still wearing the uniform in October. Williams gave the Guardians 184 innings and 248 strikeouts. He’s been injury-free for a good while now, throwing 168 innings in 2025 and now ready to clear 190 in 2026.
The breakout was facilitated by a big gain in command.
2024: 9.6% BB%
2025: 11.8% BB%
2026: 8.2% BB%
He’s always had a big fastball and a tantalizing breaking ball (the sweeper). But he wasn’t able to put them where he wanted them in the prior years.
His 34% Ball% in 2026 was two points better than the league average, and he ramped up the SwStr% to 16.1% to strike out one-third of the batters he faced.
The difference between Williams and our first two guys is that Williams did not post an elite ERA (3.76). He gave up a high 1.4 HR/9.
45.5% Hard Hit%
11.4% Brl%
24% HR/FB
Some people will take that as a bad sign for 2027. I’m taking it the obvious. K-BB% (he was at 25%) is stickier than what hitters are doing when they’re putting the bat to the ball. We should expect all of those numbers above to drop in 2027. Getting the positive sign of some variance on those fronts should push this ERA into the low-threes or better.
I think the field is sharp enough to not let him slip too far, but I can see Williams being a guy you can get in round four or five.
The Lesson: Bet on stuff and size
Command isn’t random. BB% is pretty sticky year-to-year, but it’s easier to refine command then to add velo and stuff. It’s more surprising to me to see a guy add a bunch of strikeouts than to subtract a lot of walks, if that makes sense.
Gavin is also huge (6’6’’), which is a large advantage in pitching. We need to exercise some discrimination. Shorter pitchers have to do a lot more. Extension is very important, and it’s something we should pay close attention to in pitcher evaluation.
The Worry: Another High HR Rate
I’m not too concerned about this one. Williams is an injury risk as all pitchers are, but he’s been a horse for multiple seasons now, which you can’t say about the other guys. But maybe there’s something to his delivery, pitch mix, and pitch attributes that makes him a little easier to get out of the ballyard. If that repeats, his price will be correct rather than advantageous.
Williams will be a big target for me as my SP1 for next year. He’s coming off of a huge breakout season, and there’s a clear path for him to be even better next year if the HR/FB regressions lower the ERA like I think it can.
Breakout #4: Drew Rasmussen
ADP 140
Projection: 151 IP, 138 SO, 3.62 ERA, 1.15 WHIP
2026 Result: 172 IP, 174 SO, 2.67 ERA, 0.91 WHIP
I’m a numbers guy, and numbers guys hate ERAs. That’s the rule. You have to swear an oath to never say anything positive about the ERA stat when you join this community.
But what was with this projection? His ERAs by year:
2022: 2.84
2023: 2.62
2024: 2.83
2025: 2.76
2026 Projection: 3.62
There are few pitchers that a wise projection system should be projecting under three. I get that part of it, but projecting his ERA almost a full run above what he had done in his career… that doesn’t make a lot of sense.
Rasdaddy has long been one of my favorites, and I’ve been ahead of ADP on him every year. That will probably have to end in 2027 as the discount is going to go away.
Some dudes have things that numbers struggle to quantify. With Drew, it’s soft contact. He’s always had this unique approach of throwing a bunch of his three different fastballs almost perfectly evenly in the distribution:
And his command is impeccable. We saw it all come together in 2026, and being as far removed from injury as he’d ever been made everything better.
Lesson: Don’t ignore elite ERA over long-term samples
Some dudes can just do it, man. It’s a high bar to clear before we starting buying into it. Rasmussen doesn’t have high-90s like these other guys, but he has some things a lot of guys don’t, and that’s elite comand and pitch variety year in and year out.
Lesson: Volume can be overrated
150 innings is the next 180. Check out the 75th-percentile innings totals from healthy starting pitchers (pitchers who made 25+ starts in a given year):
2021: 178
2022: 157
2023: 160
2024: 165
2025: 153
2026: 164
It came up a little bit this year. Maybe the league is realizing it over-corrected and got too conservative. But the #50 pitcher this year in innings pitched (Tarik Skubal) threw 158 regular season innings.
A 150-inning expectation is a reason to prefer guys with 170+, that’s true, but if you’re filtering out everybody who you think will be limited around 140-160, you’re missing out on some real big potential.
Breakout #5: Dylan Cease
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ADP 74
Projection: 131 IP, 131 SO, 3.90 ERA, 1.26 WHIP
2026 Result: 194 IP, 239 SO, 1.95 ERA, 0.92 WHIP
Cease broke down late in the year, which is a concerning thing to see. But he was in the Cy Young conversation into mid-August and will finish #2.
The key for him was the changeup. He was almost entirely four-seamer + slider with the Padres. The Blue Jays gave him a big old contract early on in the free agency period and clearly had a pitch mix tweak in mind.
It wasn’t a huge transformation; he threw the changeup just 11% of the time while still going 67% four-seamers and sliders, but it was the perfect amount. His fastball and slider are elite, so you want to still feature them heavily. What the changeup did was help him get rid of the home run issue he’s had. Dude gave up 11 homers all year while posting a 35% K%. His BB% finished above 11%, but that’s much less of a problem with a mid-30s K% and elite home run rate.
The Lesson: Pay attention to team changes and “one tweak away” pitchers.
It might be easier than it seems to learn a changeup, cutter, splitter, etc. We saw Cease add that pitch seamlessly, and it carried him to a career year in year one with his new team.
The Worry: The Trend
He is going to be mighty expensive next year. And he’s been a yo-yo in his career.
2021: 3.91 ERA
2022: 2.20 ERA
2023: 4.58 ERA
2024: 3.47 ERA
2025: 4.55 ERA
2026: 2.56 ERA
This sort of pattern is not predictive. It’s not a real thing. He doesn’t have a higher chance at a 4.50 ERA next year than a 2.50 ERA just because it’s an odd-numbered year. Don’t be silly.
But the legit concern is that some years the guy just doesn’t have it. And this was the highest walk rate of his career (excluding 2020). It was also the best HR/FB of his career. If he keeps an 11% BB% next year with a more normal HR/FB, you could end up with another ERA in the high-threes.
Later Round Breakouts
Breakout #6: Parker Messick
ADP 300
Projection: 116 IP, 105 SO, 4.01 ERA, 1.28 WHIP
2026 Result: 186 IP, 193 SO, 2.56 ERA, 1.06 WHIP
In fairness to the projection bros, this was a tough one. Messick threw 40 innings in the Majors in 2025; that’s all we had to go off of. Plus we knew he didn’t have elite stuff and there was a real worry (and reasonable expectation) that his strikeout rate might end up in the low-20s.
We just didn’t know. You never know what a pitcher will be until you see a couple hundred innings in the Majors.
But if you’re an MLB DW reader, you were on Messick. We had his flagged as a major breakout with the help of the fScores. We saw consistently elite home run rates and soft contact in the minors along with great command. It was reasonable enough to think that could continue in the Majors, and it did.
The Lesson: Bet on the fScores and left-handed changeups
Messick’s changeup generated a 19.4% SwStr% and .205 xwOBA. Being a lefty with a sick changeup is a big advantage. You have the natural advantage against left-handed hitters. Lefties don’t hit lefties well. And when you have a pitch like a changeup to neutralize the righties, there’s a lot of padding for you.
Messick actually did better against righties in strikeout rate (27% vs. 24%) and he had the exact same walk rate at 6.3%.
The floor is very high, and it’ll be fun to watch him in the postseason.
Breakout #7: Cade Cavalli
ADP 322
Projection: 135 IP, 114 SO, 4.23 ERA, 1.34 WHIP
2026 Result: 170 IP, 200 SO, 3.02 ERA, 1.16 WHIP
Cavalli was the #1 breakout pick at MLB DW. I wasn’t alone on that, but it felt good to get that conviction pick right.
What we liked was the SwStr% and Ball% he had posted in 2025 after coming back from injury. We liked the high-90s fastball, high ground ball rate, and strong curveball.
He took it to the next level this year. 28.3% K%, 6.8% BB%, 13.0% SwStr5, and 34.5% Ball%. He posted another 51% GB% and allowed 18 homers (0.95 HR/9). So he finishes with a 21.5% K-BB% and a HR/9 below one. You’re not going to have a bad season with that going on.
Cavalli might end up uncomfortably expensive next year, but there are no real holes to poke in the profile.
The Lesson: SwStr%, Ball% and GB% in Smaller Samples
I didn’t hit on all of these guys, but it’s a formula that I’ve had success with.
The other lesson is to not be afraid of (cheap) pitchers with checkered injury histories. Cavalli had so much trouble staying healthy from 2022-2025, but the medical field is pretty incredible these days. Guys come back from wicked injuries, and they seemingly come back faster and better than ever these days.
Breakout #8: Braxton Ashcraft
ADP 250
Projection: 134 IP, 121 SO, 3.85 ERA, 1.29 WHIP
2026 Result: 165 IP, 173 SO, 3.65 ERA, 1.09 WHIP
He and Cavalli were my big winner picks of the year, and I liked them for the same reasons. Ashcraft throws hard, he gets ground balls, and he has a long history of spectacular command.
The components were all there, but he was cheap because nobody had seen it happen in the Major Leagues.
It’s the same lesson to learn as Cavalli. Find dudes with good stuff and good command past pick 250 and hammer them over and over again.
An additional lesson: hard sliders are awesome. Ashcraft’s slider averaged 91.8mph, the second-hardest in baseball for starters (Misiorowski). We are usually talking about fastballs when speaking of velo, but it’s really useful with sliders as well. Any slider you see above 90mph is a huge weapon to have.
The worry: It seems pretty likely he’ll get hurt, and the cost will be a massive “buy high”. There’s some level of correlation between velo and arm injuries, and throwing a bunch of 90-93 mph sliders puts a lot of stress on the elbow.
The Out of Nowheres
We have dudes who earned quite a bit of value despite being undrafted in almost all leagues. These are really tough to spot ahead of time. They’re usually the types you notice in spring or in April. Here’s the list:
Breakout #9: Sean Burke
It didn’t start very well, and it didn’t end very well. But he was elite in the middle part of the year.
Hindsight bias here, but we did see Burke post a 30.5% K% in his final five starts of 2025. That was something we picked out in the White Sox preview last year, and we should’ve believed more in it looking back. But that’s kinda dumb. I do not advise looking at the final two months and making decisions based on those small samples.
But it’s kinda fun to do anyways! Here are some sneaky strikeout rates that happened after August 15th this year:
- Jared Jones 35%
- Taj Bradley 32%
- Ian Seymour 29%
- Andrew Alvarez 29%
- Jackson Jobe 28%
- Jack Perkins 28%
- Kyle Leahy 28%
- David Peterson 27%
- Christian Scott 27%
- Cristian Javier 27%
Breakout #10: Payton Tolle
Tolle went largely undrafted because he was starting the year in the minors. The injury to Garrett Crochet and the suckfest of Brayan Bello, among other things, opened up a spot for him in April. Tolle debuted on April 23rd and was terrific right away.
It wasn’t hard to see Tolle being really good. The size, stuff, and command, plus the pitch mix tweaks we saw after the 2025 season, made that pretty obvious. But stashing him on your bench in March wasn’t something that seemed like a great idea at the time.
Breakout #11: Walbert Urena
Sometimes tracking velo early in the season (or spring!) is a winning thing to do.
Urena did something you’ll almost never see. He added 2.5mph to his fastball. Some things in baseball analytics are simple. Velo increases = good. And usually a velo increase is like 1.1mph, I’m not sure I’ve ever seen somebody add 2.5mph and keep it.
So that’s the lesson. We like big velo. And we like ground balls. Urena did that with a 56% GB% this year. He threw his 98mph sinker 33% of the time while dedicating another third of his pitches to a changeup. That’s a recipe for hardly ever allowing a home run, and that goes a long way in suppressing your ERA.
Nothing else is great with Urena, however. He had a 10.6% BB%, a 22.8% K%, and plenty of clunky starts. But he was free almost all year. He was available in some leagues up until August.
I’m sure I missed some dudes, but those are the big ones I’ve found in the data.
