The time has arrived. Another three offseason months of analyzing every fantasy-relevant player while we go team-by-team through the league. I love doing these. It sets the table for draft prep, gives me a really strong grasp on every player, and helps me build out the player ranks without relying (initially) on any other sources.
You will get to follow along with the player ranks as I make them.
Follow along with the 2027 player ranking process here.
There will be a dedicated page on this website to see that. The bulk of the content and the ranks and my own projections will be paywalled, so join up as a paid member to get it all!
The projections usually get going in December. The other systems come out in January, and that's when we really start to get a feel for expectations on the projections front. I will continue to refine my season-long projections this winter and hope to make them more accurate than those other systems.
We start from the bottom of the standings the previous year. These are the teams that typically do less in free agency and trading during the winter, so we have a better feel for what the roster will look like very early on for these teams. This is at least the fourth year of taking this approach, and I think it's super valuable content. The best-tasting foods are the ones that take a really long time to cook, and that's the best recipe for fantasy content as well.
The Rockies lost 104 more games, bringing their historical record to 2,422–2,922 a .453 winning percentage). There were some positive storylines for them in 2026. At least you can say they have a potentially solid young core of hitters. They also saw some good things from guys like Chase Dollander and a little bit of life from Gabriel Hughes. We could see the Rockies keep the loss total in double digits in 2027 (especially if the season is shortened, heyooo!).
Here's the guess at the Rockies Opening Day roster. This was created in October, so obviously, this will prove to be largely wrong. But we will make updates as needed in the coming months.
Hitters
Hunter Goodman
Age: 27
Position: Catcher
I have been a Goodman doubter. The high strikeout rate, the bad team context, the fact that he's a catcher. That stuff had me doubting him last year, and boy was I wrong! He banged out 41 more homers, scored 84 runs, drove in 88, and finished as the #3 catcher in roto.
POWER
His best tool is power, obviously. 72 homers in two seasons now while playing 282 games.
- EV90: 107
- EV90 on Fly Balls: 107.5
- Bat Speed: 84th percentile
He also posted a high 24% Air Pull% and converted 64% of his barrels for homers, well above the league average, even hitting toward that huge outfield in Coors.
So I'm on board with the power. He's certainly not losing his job even with an extended slump. They started him as the DH 39 times, which we love to get from a catcher.
SPEED
We really don't care much about steals at the catcher position. Ivan Herrera led that position with eight steals last season. We had a few years of JT Realmuto being a good source of steals from the position, and we thought Agustin Ramirez might be the new guy doing that stuff last year, but when the season was done, no fantasy team got very far in steals with the help of their catcher. Goodman did steal five bags last year, putting him near the top of the list. It's not a needle-mover, and he stole all of three bags in his career before that. The point is that a three-steal projection doesn't hurt him in relation to the position he plays.
PLATE DISCIPLINE
The thing that could eventually hurt him, but hasn't so far, is the plate discipline. He struck out a career-high 30.5% of the time last year. He swings a ton at a 57.5% Swing%. The league average is below 50%, and the league leaders are usually around 60%. That turned into a high 40% Chase% and made him a guy that's pretty easy to strike out. It's when you throw him a hittable strike that he becomes a big old problem.
His BABIP in 2025 was .331. That made his .278 average very feeble. The BABIP came down to .280 in 2026, and that sent the batting average down to .245. That's way worse, but still decent in today's environment. The expectation for 2027 is probably a bit higher than .280 with how hard he hits the ball.
The home/road splits aren't an issue with Goodman, either. He hit .255/.311/.564 on the road last year with 25 of his 41 homers. That wasn't a new thing, either. He has 41 homers at home in his career and 45 on the road. But it's not the same story with his batting average. He's a .261 career hitter at home and a .234 guy on the road. But you draft him for bombs and RBI, and he does those things just fine no matter where he's playing.
But there's a real downside in the batting average. His xBA last year was .228, but he cleared that with his actual .245 average by 17 points. That can be expected to continue; it's not a total fluke. Coors Field does boost average even in relation to expectations, since xBA doesn't consider park factors.
FINAL THOUGHTS
Goodman will be expensive, probably even more so than last year. He'll be a top three catcher pick, and for good reason. But you're spending a premium pick on a guy with a 30%+ K% on an offense that will be a league-average unit at best. The home/road stuff kills you with Goodman, as I already said, but it does hurt his counting stat total in those weeks where they're on the road, because most of the rest of the lineup dies away from Coors.
I don't typically spend a ton of time on the "known commodities". I'll go deeper into stuff with the players that we have seen less of in the Majors. The way to win fantasy leagues is to find those late-round breakouts. Goodman as a sixth-round pick (or wherever he'll end up) probably won't win or lose your league. I think it's more likely to lose it for you than win it for you, because I see more downside than upside with a guy who will struggle to hit .250 and is playing in this bad organization.
PROJECTION
Still to come
RANK
He has earned the privilege of being the first player I looked at. So that makes him #1 by default. The catchers I know I'll like better are Drake Baldwin and Shea Langeliers. After that, he's in play. We'll see how all of that looks when I'm finished here in January.
Jake McCarthy
Age: 29
Position: Outfield
McCarthy was a fantasy league darling in 2026. I myself benefited from spotting him in the middle of the season. The left-handed outfielder went .289/.332/.473 with 15 homers and 32 steals. This was after he struggled to find a job in 2025, playing just 67 games in the Majors and 49 in the minors for the Diamondbacks.
McCarthy is under team control, but there's been some talk about him being a trade candidate. None of those rumors have come from the Rockies themselves, and it's not an obvious situation where they should make the move. He's a very good player for them, a fan favorite, and other teams probably don't have the highest opinion of him since everybody is skeptical of what Coors Field does for a hitter.
So I think McCarthy will take the first AB of the season for the Rockies, and that makes him a standard league fantasy player pretty easily.
PLATE DISCIPLINE
The best thing about McCarthy is the batting average, steals, and runs. He should be hitting lead-off for the Rockies next year. He scored 80 runs in 2026 in 147 games, and there's room for growth there if some of these young bats continue to develop. It's really not a bad group of hitters behind him.
His K% has always been elite, and it came down to below 16% last year. The xBA was strong at .274. He hits a good number of line drives. He was at a 46% GB%, 27% LD%, and 21% FB% last year. That's about right where you'd like a guy like this. He doesn't hit the ball very hard, so fly balls are typically bad outcomes, as they won't travel far enough to get over the outfielders. You want ground balls and line drives so he can use his legs to rack up hits.
SPEED
32 swipes on a 28% attempt rate in 2026. The success rate was 84%, which is short of elite, but certainly not something that's going to slow him down. He was #2 in the league in triples behind Corbin Carroll. Few guys can hit double-digit triples, but McCarthy's speed in that cavernous park makes him elite at that. We aren't the age yet where we expect the speed to start going away. His sprint speed was 98th percentile, so that's a sticky skill. If he plays 150+ games again, he's a 30-steal guy.
POWER
This is what you're not going to get a ton of. Although 15 homers didn't hurt you too bad last year if you had him. The 5.4% Brl%, 12% Air Pull%, and 102 EV90 are all very low numbers in the power department. He hit nine of his 15 homers at home, so he was a little bit dependent on the thin air and getting some backspun balls into the air and letting them fly.
There might be a downside for him to fall short of 12 homers. If you're drafting him, you're doing it for runs, batting average, and steals.
FINAL THOUGHTS
McCarthy popped off in late 2022 and became a sleeper pick for 2023. Back in that 2022 season, he hit five homers and stole 19 bags in the final two months of the season for the Diamondbacks. But he couldn't keep it going in 2023 and ended up playing just 99 games with a .644 OPS.
I say that to make the point that we've seen him have big stretches before, and it didn't stick then - so will it stick now? Being on the Rockies helps, and maybe that's all he needed. He did a lot of really good things in the second half of last year. It's just not a situation I want to go crazy on. And it's going to be a "buy high" type of price.
PROJECTION
Still to come
RANKING
I really don't know where he will end up for me. The projection should be pretty good, and there aren't a ton of guys who can hit .280 while giving you some power and consistent playing time in addition to 30+ steals. That's who McCarthy can be. When in doubt, I generally go away from the Rockies, and I generally go away from these "later career breakout" types. So I don't suspect I'll love McCarthy as a pick this year.
Mickey Moniak
Age: 28
Position: Outfield
This guy made the Rockies look smart for once at the beginning of the year. After a successful 2025 season (.824 OPS), he started blazing hot in 2026. He posted a .942 OPS in the first two months with 12 bombs. But he got hurt and was completely awful when he got back and ended up with a .758 OPS and .238 batting average.
The Rockies have helped him, though. His strikeout rate was out of control early in his career, and that got him tossed around to a few different teams before he settled into Colorado, which is oftentimes the final gasp for a big league player. The Rockies seem to just pick up other teams' trash because they're looking for any cheap player that can not make a fool out of himself in the Majors.
PLATE DISCIPLINE
You don't like to see the 27.5% K%. That's not as big of a problem as it used to be, but his 2025 breakout was facilitated by a 23.9% K% that was a major improvement. He does not take many walks (4.8% in 2025, 5.0% in 2026). He swings at everything (59% Swing%, 44% Chase%). That all makes him extremely volatile and gives pitchers few reasons to challenge him. We saw the bad side of that volatility in the second half as he hit .173/.208/.353 for the final two months (168 PA).
SPEED
The speed used to be decent. He stole nine bags in 135 games in 2025, and he was a highly touted athlete back when he was a top prospect in the game. But he stole just one base with a 3% attempt rate last year. Maybe some of that was injury-related, but I doubt it - he wasn't running before the injury either.
There's a silver lining in that his sprint speed was 70th percentile. He can run, he just wasn't using the speed to steal bags. Maybe that will come back a bit.
POWER
Even the EV numbers don't look good! I thought we'd have something here, but instead we see a 104.3 EV90. The bat speed is there (75th percentile), but it didn't materialize into EV. I think that's probably because he wasn't swinging at strikes. All of these quality of contact metrics were a disaster. 20th percentile "Squared Up", 26th percentile "Sweet Spot", and that's what happens when pitchers are throwing you junk, and you're swinging and putting those bad pitches into play.
FINAL THOUGHTS
Maybe some people will see his early-season elite numbers, excuse the second half, and call him a potential stud player. That probably won't happen, but it could. Some people did benefit from Moniak's April-May, and maybe they'll be clamoring for more of that in 2027.
By the numbers, it's all really bad. .213 xBA, .278 xwOBA, 27.5% K%, 9.6% Brl%. And he's a platoon candidate. He saw just 91 lefties last year and hit .188/.220/.353.
I don't even think we'd be talking about him if the Rockies hadn't given him a contract extension. That should keep him in the lineup against righties (.251/.293/.514 last year with 20 homers).
Basically, Moniak is a really good hitter when at home and against a right-handed pitcher. But home ABs against righties are something like 33% of the total if you do the math. Moniak looks like a total avoid to me, I probably didn't need to go this deep into it to figure that out.
PROJECTION
Still to come
RANK
Real low.
Cole Carrigg
Age: 24
Position: SS/OF
Carrigg was a bright spot for the Rockies. He debuted on June 9th and hit .279/.335/.477 for an .813 OPS in 93 games, hitting 12 homers and adding 11 steals. Let's walk through these tools, because Carrigg is a guy we don't have a ton of data on.
POWER
This is not his best tool, but he did get to a 109 fPower. I'm skeptical about that. His bat speed was mediocre, and he posted a 103.3 EV90 and 102.9 on fly balls. We like to see 105+ in that category. But as a 24-year-old with less than a year of experience, there's room for that to grow.
He got to his 12 homers with a 23% Air Pull%. That's good to see. His 40% Sweet Spot% was high as well, so this is a guy who can handle the bat. But just a 6.4% Brl%? That doesn't typically line up with a 3.2% HR% like the one he had. I'd be a little bit down on buying him as a 20-homer guy, which some people might think he is.
SPEED
He is fast. 84th percentile sprint speed, 118 fSpeed score. He went for a well above-average 18% attempt rate, but did get caught too much with a 69% success rate. I don't think he'll slow down. He stole 51 bags in 2024 and then 46 more in 2025 (in the minors), so this is a big part of his game.
PLATE DISCIPLINE
Solid enough 24% K% with an even better 85.3% Zone-Contact%. The Z-Contact% numbers you're looking for are above 80%. 85% is very good, especially for a guy who can hit for some power. You'll see some 90%+ marks, but those are the Arraez/Simpson types who aren't even trying to hit the ball over anybody's head. So that's a very good sign.
His swing rate was 53%, which is perfectly fine. He chased at a 36% rate, and that's something you typically see improve as young players get more looks at MLB pitching. He walked 7% of the time, which is fine and pretty good to see from a 53% Swing%. He's aggressive, but not blindly so. The plate discipline stuff looks really good to me.
In the minors before the call-up, he posted a 15% K% and 10.5% BB%; those were both big improvements from a year prior. So this guy just got better before the 2026 season, and the success translated into the Majors.
QUALITY OF CONTACT
.247 xBA, .312 xwOBA. He's more an angles hitter than an EV guy, but you really like to see a young guy with this good bat control. Just a 38% GB%, a 27% LD%, and that aforementioned elite 40% Sweet Spot%.
FINAL THOUGHTS
I'm really liking what I'm seeing from Carrigg. A young hitter with maturity at the plate. His bat speed isn't an elite tool, but it's not a huge liability either as he was around the 50th percentile. With some offseason work and continued growth, you have a potential 20-20 guy in the future.
My guess for 2027 would be more like 16 homers and 25 steals with a .250 batting average. You really never know how these Rockies players will follow up their first year. But I'm pretty confident in Carrigg as a big league player because of the array of skills he has. There's no glaring problem here, and seemingly more upside than downside.
Projection
Still to come
Rank
He's going to be my favorite cost-considered Rockies player, I think. Very impressed with the dude. But I think he has to come in below McCarthy. It is nice that he has that SS/OF eligibility. That's a big advantage in some leagues.
Kyle Karros
Age: 24
Position: 3B
The son of Eric Karros! He played 43 games in 2025 and struggled, but got another call in 2026 and delivered useful results.
The Rockies will take a 2 WAR season! He hit .253/.347/.414 with 13 bombs and five steals. It wasn't a smash for fantasy leagues by any means, but he did enough to be the favorite to play a bunch of games at third base next year.
Power
This isn't how his money will be earned. He hit just those 13 homers in 131 games for a 2.7% HR%. But some of the underlying numbers make you think he could do better than that:
- 8.3% Brl%
- 105.1 EV90
- 111.8 Max EV
His bat speed is about league average, which you don't like. He hit his fly balls less hard (103 EV90) than the rest of his batted balls, and you don't like that too much either! He didn't pull very often, but he didn't hit a bunch of balls into the ground (43% GB%) either.
I'd say 15-20 homers is a reasonable expectation for next year given 140+ games played.
Speed
Five steals on a weak 4% attempt rate. He was at 37th percentile sprint speed. So he's not the slowest dude in the world, but he wasn't running a ton even in the minors. So we're around a 5-7 steal projection.
Plate Discipline
This is where things look a bit better for Karros. An 88% Zone Contact% and 25% Chase% led to a solid 21% K%. He is one of the more patient hitters on this club, and he walked 11% of the time last year for an OBP almost at .350. He had the best "Swing Decision" mark on the team at 69.6%. The way I define that: the percentage of your swings that are pitches in the zone.
On a team full of free-swingers, Karros and Rumfield have some patience.
The best attribute in the data is his sweet spot percentage. That was in the 99th percentile at a mark of 42%. Only Steven Kwan, Brandon Marsh, Spencer Torkelson, and Josh Jung were better.
This stat regresses, but it's a long way from totally random. Here are the leaders from 2025 and what they did in 2026:
So an average of a few points drop, but only Springer really tanked, and everybody but him stayed above the league average the following year.
SPLITS
I'm always checking the home/road stuff with the Rockies. The road was not friendly to Karros.
Minus 48 points in AVG, minus 49 in SLG. He did hit more homers on the road (not super uncommon), but the plate discipline was way worse and the OPS was a problem. So we'll probably have that moving forward.
FINAL THOUGHTS
Karros is good with the bat. He should be expected to hit a lot of line drives and for a decent batting average. Line drive + high contact rates = good batting average. There doesn't seem to be any looming threat to his playing time. I think he did enough to win the job out of the gate, and he should hit for a decent enough AVG/OBP to keep the job.
But I'm not seeing real 20-homer upside or double-digit steals. He wasn't a super highly touted prospect, and we kinda saw why. This is for pretty deep leagues only, and better for points leagues.
PROJECTION
Still to come
RANKING
He's nothing like Mickey Moniak at all, but that's the decision I have to make right now. Moniak or Karros in the rank? Nobody really cares right now; they don't even play the same position. But when I'm building out ranks one-by-one, this is how I do it.
Karros is the much safer investment. His defense is good; he doesn't have prospects coming for his job like Moniak does, and he's not a guy prone to massive brutal slumps that could cost him the job. But the per-week upside isn't nearly what Moniak has.
T.J. Rumfield
Age: 26
Position: 1B
What an interesting player this guy is. He comes out of seemingly nowhere to hit .302/.391/.461 in his debut season, playing 155 games. Rumdaddy hit 17 bombs without the benefit of a steal was sort of a stud points league asset.
PLATE DISCIPLINE
He struck out just 13.6% of the time with an 11.4% BB%. So that's his best skill. The guy was #2 in the league in OBP.
One of the underrated stats from 2026... TJ Rumfield's OBP out of nowhere
— Jon Anderson (@JonPgh) October 13, 2026
OBP Leaders (500 PA)
1. Yordan Alvarez .432
2. TJ Rumfield .390 ⬅️
3. Jake Bauers .389
4. James Wood .388
5. Gabriel Moreno .388
Quite often, a guy posts a high OBP because he refuses to swing the bat. Not the case with Rumfield, who offered at 48.3% of pitches, which is above the league average. He chased just 30.4% of the time and made contact in the zone at a 91.7% clip. This is an excellent eye at the plate with elite contact skills. An impressive profile to be sure.
The BABIP was insane at .331. That's not going to happen again, especially after you see that he doesn't hit the ball hard or run very fast. He hit a lot of line drives (38% Sweet Spot%, 26% LD%), and that works in the favor of a high BABIP, but a .331 BABIP is an outlier outcome. He's in the top 50 BABIPs of the last six seasons.
POWER
But now things get less interesting for fantasy leagues, especially standard roto where you don't really want the walks. His EV90 was super weak at 101.2. His barrel rate at 5.0%. I'm not exactly sure how he turned in a 16-homer season. The air pull wasn't spectacular at 16.6%.
I suppose he kind of volumed his way to those 17 ding pieces. He saw 631 plate appearances, struck out just 86 times, and walked 72 times. So there were a lot of balls in play to make this happen. He hit 10 homers at home, and six on the road. So there was some of that thin air that helped him out, probably.
SPEED
Non-existent. Zero steals, zero attempts.
FINAL THOUGHTS
Super interesting playing. He knows what to swing at and what to pass on. He gets to good launch angles, so he has that hit tool + discipline combination you like. But the inflated BABIP and lack of power and speed make it tough to see him being a repeat fantasy producer. And honestly, 17 homers with zero steals, 67 runs, and 74 RBI (that's what he did in 2026) leaves you thirsty for more.
Rumfield is still a decent points league pick. He handled lefties just fine with a .372/.371/.404 line, and hit .295/.395/.425 on the road. So the splits isn't a reason to get super worried about lost playing time. But this guy isn't a guy the Rockies are building around, so there's a wide range of potential outcomes for him. I'm not thinking the Rockies will pass up on a potential big piece add at first base cause they love Rumfield so much; that's kinda what I'm saying.
PROJECTION
Still to come
RANK
He strikes me as a guy who won't be worth much in most fantasy leagues as a draft pick. It seems to me like 2026 is close to the best possible outcome. There was a reason he wasn't hyped up much ahead of last year. His discipline and hit tool fScores actually got better in the Majors than they were in the minors, which is suspect to me.
Again, you can target him in your deeper points leagues, but I have a feeling he'll be overvalued in drafts anyways.
Ezequiel Tovar
Age: 25
Position: SS
This sucks for the Rockies:
If he were a free agent, I'm not sure any team would sign him. Maybe that's too much of an overreaction to a 25-year-old shortstop. But man, were things bad in 2026.
A -0.4 WAR while making decent money. He hit .219/.264/.353 with 13 homers and eight steals in 146 games. He killed them.
Maybe there's some solace in the xStats?
Not really! Just a .371 xSLG. A 20-point gap between his K% and BB%. The EVs were low, the launch angle stuff is as gross as it gets, and he's not fast.
He's one of the few guys in the league above a 60% swing rate, and that has pitchers just throwing him junk and getting him out with whiffs and soft contact. The Zone Contact% at 80% isn't horrible, but it's not good enough to make up for his various other problems.
A 44% Chase%! That's 8th worst in the league, but only second-worst on the team (Moniak). So he has this discipline problem without the raw talent of other guys that have that.
It's just so bad for Tovar.
What we'd hold onto is that he's never been this bad before and he's still only 25. Maybe it was just a mental breakdown this year or something.
He had a .763 OPS in 2024 with 26 bombs. So that was an encouraging year for him. He missed a lot of time in 2025, but wasn't a total team-wrecker with a .694 OPS.
I've liked the buy-low on the guy the last couple of years. And I do again this year! He will almost surely do better next year. But the buy is so low that you're not even talking about a real fantasy league anymore. He's not anywhere near consideration for a 15-team league, even. Maybe a late-round pick in a 15-team NL-only league or something!
I don't know. I'll repeat myself: I think Tovar can be better than this. Maybe this horrible year will finally convince him to work on his patience. It can't get any worse, so make some changes and let some of those tools that got you the seven-year extension play.
He's going to get another look at the beginning of the year. There are other shortstops coming up, but I don't think they're going to bench or cut the guy while he's on contract for four more years.
The question will be: how long does it take for me to rank somebody below him?
Connor Norby
Age: 26
Position: 2B
When a struggling Major League pitcher goes from some other team to the Rockies, you know it's about over. When a struggling hitter goes to the Rockies, there's potential new life.
This is what we saw from the Norbmeister in 2026. The Marlins finally gave up on him, shipping him to Colorado for Victor Vodnik at the deadline, and Norby went on to hit .302/.387/.457 (.844 OPS) with his new team. He will go to arbitration and stick around with the Rockies for next year after helping them offensively late in the year (whatever that was worth).
You might be tempted to just look at the stats he posted with the Rockies and extrapolate that into next year. I don't think that's justified. It's a better spot for him, no one's doubting that, but hitting Major League pitching is really hard even when you're in Coors Field, and Norby hadn't shown much ability on this front for his career prior. It might be fair to say that he had never been given a full shake.
Just 88 games in 2025 and less than 100 in 2026 with the Marlins. His .251/.300/.389 line in 2025 didn't make him the worst hitter in the league, but no team is excited about a .689 OPS from a (primary) second baseman. He does play some third and first as well, so he's flexible. But the bat hasn't been enough.
He still struck out a good bit with Colorado (25%) and went for a 7.5% Brl%. The .400 BABIP he posted with the Rockies inflated the numbers as well.
Power
Not really there.
102 EV90
98 average EV
107 max EV
Max EV isn't the most important stat, but we like to see 110 to believe that a guy has the goods. His bat speed is pretty weak, so his decent fly ball rate doesn't work out in his favor.
Speed
65th percentile sprint speed, ten steals for a new career high in 2026 on a 13% attempt rate. He has just a little bit of both power and speed, not enough to lock down a job or be very interesting for fantasy leagues.
Discipline
Career strikeout rate north of 27%. The walk rate came way up in 2026 to 10.4% (5.3% the year prior). His 51% Swing% is fine; his 28% Chase% is fine. So he has a decent read on the strike zone, but doesn't make a lot of contact, certainly not enough with his low bat speed.
Norby seems to me like a role player. The Rockies have a lot of moving parts. They cycle in a lot of different players during the year, and Norby doesn't strike me as a guy who is going to lock down a job.
Final Thoughts
But hey, I could be wrong. Maybe he just needed a better place to hit and a team that will give him some run. He earned a look early in the season next year with his strong performance after the trade, so he could end up playing 120 games with 20 bombs, ten steals, and a .250 batting average. That sounds like a best-case scenario to me, but it's certainly possible.
Projection
Still to come
Rank
At least we know he's not a massive dud hitter. Career .711 OPS. There are many guys worse. Plus double-digit abilities in HR+SB. And the age is still working in his favor.
He's going ahead of Tovar.
Hitting Prospects
Podcast here:
Jon Anderson
The guys we're watching for 2027:
- Charlie Condon
- Zac Veen
- Roc Riggio
- Sterlin Thompson
A lot of names in the outfield. There will be some competition in the spring. Zac Veen got some run in the Majors and failed pretty hard, but the power+speed is there, and that experience could be very valuable for him.
Charlie Condon is the main name to watch. Big year for him in 2026 (.273/.390/.514, 27 HR) inflated by the PCL, but he's a very talented young player with lots of potential if he can crack the MLB team and adjust quickly. The 25% K% in AAA is a bit concerning, but he walked a lot and showed real improvements as the year went on. Well-rounded player, and someone worth being excited about in dynasty/keeper/super deep leagues.
If I start writing up prospects or bench guys for all of these teams, I'll never finish. The intent of this is to focus on the top 350 players or so.
Pitchers
It's nice to be able to ease into things when you're starting a long process like this one. Writing the Rockies first essentially means we only have to do half the post.
Gabriel Hughes
Age: 25
We will see if the Rockies come up with any different plan for preventing runs in 2027. I don't suspect they will. They aren't going to be outbidding anybody in free agency for pitching help. I have no idea why a pitcher would sign with them if he had another option - and the Rockies aren't going to be spending money on their starting rotation, I don't think.
So it's Gabriel Hughes as the most interesting guy in the rotation at the beginning of the year.
A 6.33 ERA, but a 4.43 SIERA. He gave up a .316 BABIP and had trouble stranding runners on base.
The 19.8% K% and 8.5% BB%... most Rockies pitchers do worse than that.
He started out okay. Three scoreless in relief against the Giants for his MLB debut and then managed a quality start against the Dodgers for his follow-up. But the raw talent doesn't seem to be there. A 9.9% SwStr%, a 36% Ball%. Not good overall. The stuff wasn't good either in the models at a 91 Stuff+.
There might be some path to reasonable success, though. He throws his fastball in a way unlike other guys, and that led to a .296 xwOBA as hitters struggled to square it up. The curveball did much of the same with a .263 xwOBA. He generated soft contact overall and did a fine job keeping the ball in the yard.
So he's "crafty" or whatever word you want to use. Lots of four-seamers, probably too many. But six different pitches in the bag and several paths he could take to figure this out.
I think Hughes is good enough to be a fixture in the rotation. That's not a high bar to clear. He did get a bunch of strikeouts in the minors (30%), so maybe he can find his way into the mid-20s there. There's some potential, I suppose. I'm trying not to just completely write everybody for your 15-team leagus just because they're on the Rockies. But things seem to typically get worse for Rockies pitchers as they get into it rather than better. We're certainly not talking about Hughes for 12-team leagues or anything close.
Projection
Still to come
Rank
Honorary default #1 as the first pitcher reviewed.
Chase Dollander
Age: 25
He will miss the beginning of the season after getting the internal brace in the elbow in late June. Maybe we'll see him by May. And he'll get talked about when he comes back.
He had that 25% K%, but had some huge starts before the injury. He struck out nine Astros and nine Padres in back-to-back starts. His K% was at 30% after his first 32 innings (he opened in each of his first six appearances). The SwStr% was pretty good at 13.5%, and he threw enough strikes and got enough ground balls to make us start believing.
The final few outings were bad. He gave up nine runs in his final dozen innings (three outings), so things were looking bad even before the injury that cost him the season.
But not many Rockies pitchers have this much talent/stuff. It's a tough case study because Colorado almost never has actual good pitchers. I think Dollander would have had a half-decent season had he not gotten hurt. Elite stuff still works in Colorado, just not as much as in other places.
The home/road splits are not what you'd think, but it's a really small sample size:
More strikeouts and fewer walks at home. Way better K-BB% at home, but way worse ERA. That's weird and it's small sample stuff you can't really learn from.
I'm not sure he's worthy of a draft-and-stash approach, but he'll be someone we'll be speculatively adding in May when he's coming back. Maybe you just want to use him on the road or something like that.
Projection
Still to come
Rank
I'd rather have him than Gabriel Hughes, even with the month or two he'll miss.
Mason Adams
Age: 26
Minors: 3.45 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 24.7% K%, 9.1% BB%
Majors: 4.03 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, 25% K%, 9.7% BB%
He's a right-handed pitcher who will have a chance to make the rotation. He fared reasonably well in his debut. A 15.3% K-BB% is pretty good. He just got hit really, really hard (56% Hard%, .343 xwOBA). That should naturally regress positively.
What I don't really see is the 25% K%. He had just a 10.5% SwStr%, 96 Stuff+, and pretty weak MLB DW grades on all of his pitches.
But there's a lot of stuff to mess with. Six different pitches, a cutter/sinker/four-seamer trio, and a good curveball in that short sample.
The Rockies rotation seems to me to be in better shape than it has been in prior years. There are at least three guys here with some chance of being half decent. That's more than I've been able to say in prior years! The new front office seems to be turning the ship around, albeit slowly.
Projection
Still to come
Rank
Need to see more from him, but he might be a little better than Gabriel Hughes.
I think that's enough, bros. It's the Rockies. Let's move on!
