> ## Content Index > Fetch the complete content index at: https://mlb-data-warehouse.ghost.io/llms.txt > Use this file to discover other available public pages before exploring further. # NFL DFS Breakdown: Week Seven - URL: https://mlb-data-warehouse.ghost.io/nfl-dfs-breakdown-week-seven/ - Published: 2026-10-22T13:20:15.000Z - Updated: 2026-10-22T13:20:15.000Z - Author: Jon Anderson ![](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!fSBv!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F3677eccc-32c3-414f-a6b1-41a957a2aaf4_2172x724.png) --- I debuted some detailed projections last week. I hope those treated you well. I’ll probably wait another 2-3 weeks to test for accuracy, but from what I saw, they at least all made some sense. I apologize for missing the week six review and the MNF Showdown Preview. My wife wanted to take the kids for a day trip up to this huge Christmas store in Michigan, so we did that. Seven hours of driving for a couple of hours in a Christmas store, but it was cool. The kids were super excited and it was nice to take the opportunity to spend an extra day with them since I’m still in between full-time jobs. Things are going pretty well on that front, which is good news for me but maybe bad news for you NFL readers. If I land a full-time offer, I’m thinking I’m going to take it. I can’t take risks, man. As the sole provider with three kids and a disposition that isn’t the crazy hustler type, I’m best off using the degree and my skills for a very nice salary and benefits. If that happens, I really doubt I’ll have the time to write up 10+ NFL games every week, but we’ll see how that goes. Let’s get to week seven! --- # Game Data Six teams over a 25-point implication on the main slate, as of Tuesday. ![](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!OCIw!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc04e659b-215e-45a6-b1b7-fcc05e906b21_1138x452.png) The Lions are off their bye and host the Packers. So they’re loaded up for a big performance. Games in Detroit are always going to be a feature for DFS cash games. That’s the big one, and the Packers are on the other side - that’s an offense that can generate a shootout. We should get Lamar Jackson back for the Ravens in an exciting AFC North matchup with the Bengals in Baltimore. The Bengals had the week to heal up and that one could be a shootout. The 49ers take their 6-0 record into Atlanta. The Falcons offense wasn’t what we thought it’d be against the Bears, but another week to heal up for Michael Penix and a home game should get them responding to San Francisco’s points. The 49ers are just a very, very good offense who we can rely on to score points in some way. The Texans have been playing great ball. Probably one of the more surprising offenses of the season, powered by CJ Stroud breaking out. They get the bulk of the 42.5-point O/U in that game. What do we do with the Rams after losing Davante Adams and coming in so far below their point implication last week? We’ll find out, I guess, but they’re still implied for a good number of points - but nothing like last week. And the Packers on the other side of Detroit. That’s a great spot for their successful passing game that has been operating almost entirely through their two stud wideouts. Game-by-game now! --- # 49ers at Falcons ![](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!48lu!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2988a640-3e6c-4903-becc-4514e482a781_1904x452.png) ![](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!f_cZ!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Facf681ed-2c09-4fcb-ab7f-0d52feef4363_1898x406.png) **SHORT WEEK ALERT**. The 49ers played Monday night in San Francisco and now fly to Atlanta for an early Sunday game. The schedule-makers have done them very few favors this year. But I guess they’re used to the jet lag after they had to go to Australia. But these cross-country flights for early games can turn into letdown spots. The Falcons defense has played well. I think the Falcons are a team that could make some noise, but they have to get going with a 2-4 record. Falling to 2-5 as a home underdog would put them in a tough spot. But if they can get into the playoffs and stay healthy, I think they’ve got a shot at a couple of postseason wins. Mike Evans is questionable after leaving Monday night early. It’s Achilles tendonitis; the early comments sounded like he has a real shot to play this week. But they’re 6-0 and don’t have to take as many risks as other teams right now, their goal might shift toward just having Evans healthy late in the season rather than getting him in there every week. So that’s a difference-maker for the 49ers offense. The Falcons didn’t smash against the Bears like I thought they would. Just 4.9 yards per play last week and they got beaten pretty handily. But Penix ended up throwing for 225 yards and three touchdowns, so they ended up with a decent game, but most of it came late when they were playing super fast to catch up. ### Quarterbacks **Brock Purdy ($6,600)** probably isn’t worth the $6,600 in this particular spot. The Falcons can play defense, and the 49ers are happy to win games efficiently. Purdy has a high floor, but less than 20 fantasy points in his last two. ![](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Dim9!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6bca50b4-8550-440d-9be9-9cd03d053c79_1436x926.png) The 49ers are +2% in PROE, so they’re happy to throw the ball, and they’re very efficient when doing that with 8.1 yards per pass attempt. With Evans questionable, the game on the road, and up against a good defense - the ceiling just doesn’t seem to be there for Purdy. **Michael Penix ($5,300)** has gone over 20 fantasy points just once, last week when they were scrambling for points late. The Falcons are very run-heavy. They’d rather win the game with the Robinsons than with Penix chucking it 40 times. And he doesn’t run, so it’s a tough click on Penix even at the very cheap price tag. But it’s not a horrible play at this price. ### Running Backs **Bijan Robinson ($8,500)** is down $200 from last week. The 49ers defense has allowed 3.6 yards per carry. That’s seventh-best in the league. Bijan gets a bunch of work in the pass game and is a top two running back in the league, so the defensive matchup doesn’t matter too much for a guy like this. The work will be there, he can make huge plays against anybody, and this game could force a few more targets onto him. He’s always in play, and we like the price coming down a bit, but I think he’s going to project well below Jahmyr Gibbs, who we’ll get to later. **Christian McCaffrey ($7,600)** had a big ole game on Monday. 16 carries, 64 yards, nine catches, 53 yards, and two rushing touchdowns. The workload is back to near his peak. He has 20 xFP per week since week one when they went heavily to Kaelon Black. He has 67 carries to Black’s 31 in this time. ![](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!wsVr!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fecf2c71d-c69c-4418-9553-3b9fd9fc67b6_1198x794.png) He’s going to get the ball, he’s going to catch a bunch of passes, and the price is a healthy amount below the Bijan/Gibbs. So he’s in play, but I’ll re-iterate that it’s not a pristine matchup going across the country for the early game and facing a defense that can play. We love the 26 opportunities last week, but from the plot so far that looks like the high water mark for him rather than something we can expect weekly. ### Pass Catchers **Drake London ($7,500)** let us down last week in the cash lineup. The touchdowns went elsewhere, but he still did see 10 targets. And his workload for the year is pristine: ![](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!pZ94!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe4546ac2-7350-47e6-9df9-72fec7b20dd6_966x302.png) A 30% target per route rate is elite. 4.02 yards per route is super elite. He’s one of the best in the league and Michael Penix is constantly looking for him. It’s a good spot for him since we expect the game to be competitive. The Falcons probably won’t be able to run the ball heavily in the second half to kill the clock, so we can use London in cash again this week. He should probably be $8,000 or something. **Kyle Pitts ($4,000)** has found some success the last two weeks. ![](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!mi-J!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7af74c71-9044-45ee-9b4c-b660db517531_1302x760.png) He saw just a 12% target share in weeks 3-4 with Penix, but that’s up to 21% in the last two weeks. He’s played more snaps, ran more routes, seen more targets, and gone 10-102-3 in the last two games. That’s interesting. The floor is still pretty low since we have mostly seen Penix opt for other targets than Pitts, but maybe that relationship is getting better. I wish he were $3500 rather than $4K, but this price might work out fine. Pitts is on the list, but it would be a play I’d rather make based on the price and how it fits in the lineup. The 49ers data from the last four games: ![](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!bGFR!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Faa87bd4f-4658-484a-8503-9a4b57e55d22_970x358.png) It has been the **George Kittle ($5,700)** show. And it’s national tight ends day or something this week, right? There’s no way that matters in reality, but people will talk about. He’s a touchdown machine with five this year. He’s gone 4-70-1, 5-24-0, and 5-69-1 in the last three weeks. I’m really not sure he’s worth $5,700 - that price has gotten a little bit out of control. But if **Mike Evans** is out, Kittle gets a boost and I’d probably consider him in that case if the pricing works. Deebo Samuel is also out for this game. I didn’t see that at first! So if Evans can’t go, there’s a lot of opportunity up for grabs for the 49ers. I’d push that usage more onto CMC and Kittle. Last week, nobody other that CMC/Evans/Kittle saw more than two targets. The other route-runners: - Jordan Watkins 29 - Brandin Cooks: 15 Watkins is super cheap at $3,300, but saw just one target on his 29 routes, so that’s not good. He’d have to get more looks if Evans misses, but it’ll be pretty thin. ### Recap It’s a 50.5-point total and we have injuries making a difference. The 49ers pass game could be missing two major players. I’d rather just play CMC and Kittle in that situation, but **Jordan Watkins $3,300** might project as a decent punt if he’s going to have to be on the field for 90%+ of the snaps. I like Bijan and London as usual, and we’re seeing an uptrend in Kyle Pitts usage. Those Falcons are in play. But we have two pretty good defenses in this one, and I’m feeling like this game will come in below the 50-point O/U. Lots of potential plays in this game, but for now, nothing worthy of “first click” status. CMC might become that if Evans misses. --- ***Subscribe today to get the rest of this post, plus access to the NFL dashboard, plus access to the app, which has detailed projections, tools, reports, player grades, team grades, and a lot more.*** [***Hit the Resource Glossary to see how to access those tools***](https://www.mlbdatawarehouse.com/p/jonpgh-resource-glossary?ref=mlb-data-warehouse.ghost.io)***.*** # Bengals at Ravens ![](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!H68i!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F50cb72b5-3851-4da6-bd70-38d3384038e6_1892x452.png) ![](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!x8K7!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0933a664-ae2c-4a12-a8ff-a6e709c33a54_1868x410.png) We’re planning on getting **Lamar Jackson** back for this game. That’s obvious by the 51.5-point total. You wouldn’t have that with Huntley in there. They thought about playing Lamar last week, so with another week and a big divisional game, I think he’s back in there. ### Quarterbacks **Lamar Jackson ($6,700)** is cheap! And it’s a solid matchup against a Bengals defense that is average at best, and the Bengals can score points to push the Ravens into a bigger volume game through the air. But it was an ankle injury for Lamar. Not what you want to see since he gets so much of his fantasy value from running. We saw him get banged up last year, lose some speed, and not do much in the run game. And that made him not such a great fantasy play. That is probably enough to not consider him this week, but for tourneys, it’s a good upside bet to make. Maybe the ankle is close enough to 100% for him to run in this big game, and you get a discount this week and probably lower ownership. **Joe Burrow ($6,900)** faces a Ravens defense which has allowed a decent 6.8 yards per attempt. That’s better than the league average. But this is a good spot for the Bengals. They have Chase and Higgins back at 100%, and if Lamar is in there and doing his thing, the game could shoot out. I don’t think I’ll ever use non-running Burrow at these prices in cash, but this is a game you can attack in tourneys in various ways. ### Running Backs Cincy has given up 5.0 yards per carry. If Lamar can’t run like normal, you might see a big volume game from **Derrick Henry ($7,900)**. But age seems to be working against him, finally. Just 4.1 yards per carry, so he’s down more than a yard from his peak performance. That makes him a very tough play at $7,900 in cash. But tourneys - yes. **Chase Brown ($6,600)** has been once again giving up more work lately to Perine. Last two weeks: ![](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!CQY4!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa720f019-6fea-4a6d-94b6-72012786545f_1110x310.png) They’re almost splitting the carries, and Perine has been a lot more effective with double the yards per carry. Brown’s fantasy value has been saved by 14 catches in two weeks, but that was helped by some injuries happening with Chase and Higgins. I don’t think we can use Brown this week. ### Pass Catchers **Zay Flowers ($6,900)** has been one of the best on a per-route basis in the league. It could be a more pass-heavy attack from the Ravens with Lamar in there but not running like usual. We can’t look at the last two weeks with Huntley at QB. Flowers went for 150 yards, 84 yards, and 118 yards in three games with Lamar. This is a super high-upside play. And I think it’s considerable in cash - things seem to point toward Flowers having a bigger target total this week. Nobody else has done much for the Ravens in the pass game. **Ja’Marr Chase ($8,100)** and **Tee Higgins ($6,600)**. It’s easy to analyze the Bengals. Higgins didn’t do much in the game before the bye, but he was clearly not playing at 100% after the adductor injury in week four. Higgins numbers are still better than Chase’s this year: ![](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!DrtR!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7fb561b6-367f-492b-ad39-fe1de4aa89c2_970x214.png) Slightly more targets per route and a lot more yardage. The prices should be closer, but I think they might both be a little too high. It’s hard to play more than a couple of tourney lineups with some of these two guys. Chase should be lower-owned against this week, and his ceiling is enormous. But Higgins is the better cash play due to the price. ### Recap This is a good game environment with Lamar back and the O/U above 50\. But the prices are all seemingly correct, and it’s tough to pick out any individual play. It’s one I’d play a bunch in tourneys, but for cash, I don’t know. I’ve got Lamar, Flowers, Chase, and Higgins on the list for further consideration later. --- # Bucs at Panthers ![](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!xfoV!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5b7c28d9-4c3d-41f2-9ddd-a5aad667c021_1904x454.png) ![](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!pwP6!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F4c95ddba-d4df-4125-9d0f-478b778491ae_1938x388.png) The Bucs could get **Baker Mayfield** back this week, but we won’t know until late in the week. It’s a 44.5-point total with no new injuries that have caused mispricings. Both teams look about league-average overall. The defenses look about average. It’s a tough game for DFS purposes. We don’t know how well the QB play will go. We don’t even know who one of the QBs will be. And the bigger problem is that the prices have all gotten right and there’s no breaking news that has shaken things up. ### Quarterbacks Maybe **Jalon Daniels ($4,500)** gets into play as a punt QB if he’s starting again. He has handled the job decently well, and has rushed for 55, 23, and 39 yards in his three starts. But the passing stuff is bad. A 6.1-yard ADoT with 5.1 yards per attempt, three touchdowns, and five interceptions. So yeah, very low floor. **Bryce Young ($5,900)** has been solid this year. 7.7 yards per attempt, +0.21 EPA, 11:1 TD:INT. He throws the ball down the field and lets his two very good WRs go to work. Only one real ceiling game, however: ![](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!otc0!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F28910393-b810-40ce-828b-77c042246c24_1680x402.png) We’d be perfectly happy with 24 points. I guess he’s considerable, but I’d probably rather find someone cheaper. We’ll have to see what the projection is. I’d rather not use a non-rushing QB around $6K in a game that doesn’t project to shoot out. ### Running Backs **Chuba Hubbard ($6,700)** carried is 28 (!) times last week. Three straight games above 20 opportunities. ![](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!H5VM!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F54c52a94-fd8a-4f51-a9e8-e333252b7ce3_1324x860.png) HOWEVER, he has just averaged just above two targets per game, so it’s mostly on the ground for him. And the Bucs rush defense is good. He’ll get his touches, and maybe he’ll spring a big one or score a couple touchdowns to smash again, but I’d rather not play him in this matchup at the elevated price tag. The Panthers defense has been crushed by the run. They’ve allowed 5.1 yards per carry; that’s the worst in the league. **Bucky Irving ($6,100)** is in a good spot. He did not do much against the Steelers last week, and he’s pretty game-script dependent. If it’s a throw-happy game, Irving doesn’t do a lot. But if the game stays close, it could be a healthy supply of rushing yards for Irving. And he’s the goal line back. They’ve rushed for just five touchdowns this year (Irving 2, Tucker 1, Egbuka 1, Mayfield 1), and he has 40% of those. They didn’t have Sean Tucker active last week, and if he’s down again in week seven, Irving has a better shot at a touchdown since they’ve used Tucker at the goal line a bunch of times going back to last year. The floor, though, is pretty low on Irving, as we’ve seen. ### Pass Catchers **Tet McMillan ($7,100)** and **Jalen Coker ($6,100)** see more than half the targets when they’re both on the field. They kinda take away from each other. It’s a similar situation to Chase & Higgins in Cincy. They’re both very good, and you usually get a very good combined score from them, but they’re getting more and more expensive and you don’t know exactly who will be the guy on any given week. To tough to pick for cash in this not great game environment. I suppose Mayfield returning would be good for **Emeka Egbuka ($5,700)**. Daniels targeted him 16 times last week, so he was finally getting it right with the backup QB. The price is nice for a guy who is clearly the #1 WR in a fine matchup. But Mayfield was bad before the injury and now he has to return after three missed games. I still think I’m into it. It’s really not a good pass-catcher core behind Emeka, so he stands out with 27% of the targets and a target on almost a quarter of his routes. ![](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!GXiO!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F935f15bc-7d54-499e-8a51-c2c7a7cdd93f_836x286.png) ### Recap There’s nobody in this game I’m really wanting to play. But I like the price on Emeka Egbuka for cash. Bucky Irving has a great matchup if the game goes in a way where he can see 20+ carries. Chuba Hubbard’s workload is locked in, but it’s a tough matchup and not a big passing game role. It’s just a bunch of “fine but not great plays” to me. Egbuka is the only one I’m considering for cash. But there are many ways to play it for tourneys if you trust these QBs. Irving + Tet/Coker, Tet+Egbuka, stuff like that. --- # Browns at Titans ![](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ZTsI!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa1635dd5-0acc-4ecb-bb94-beaafe380427_1898x456.png) ![](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!fYNl!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F13f0d445-6298-43f3-9573-a5752f6aad6b_1900x408.png) Tied for the lowest total of the week with the Jets and Dolphins game. With a lot of juice on this slate and a bunch of studs we want to get, we do want to find some cheap guys. I don’t think they’re coming from this game, but we’ll take a look. The slate really gets made on Friday and Saturday with injury news. There are usually a few cheap RB/WR/TEs that become viable when unexpected injury news pops up. ### Quarterbacks **Deshaun Watson ($5,200)** and **Cam Ward ($4,600)**. Hence the 38.5 O/U. After a decent start, Watson’s below a 0.0 EPA. But the Browns are 4-2 and won’t be benching him for Shedeur Sanders soon, even if things do get worse. Watson busted out last week on a 61% completion rate for 164 yards and no touchdowns. He played very poorly, and we’re more or less back to the preseason idea where he’s one of the worst QBs in the league and will eventually hit the bench. I’ll say this - it’s a good matchup for the Browns. The Titans don’t possess the ball much and have a bad defense. So their opponents gets off a good number of plays and have a big 7.6 yards per attempt against. Watson probably isn’t the craziest play if you absolutely need a $5,200 QB. I’m always looking to pay down at QB, and Watson might actually fit that this week. He has at least 13 xFP every week, he’s run for at least 20 yards every game, and has connected on some big plays to Denzel Boston. ![](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!6X1n!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fdac83327-eb42-41c6-94f1-92841e10ae20_1314x770.png) Obviously we don’t *want to click it,* but I’m putting him on the list, because this looks like a half-decent floor spot to me. The “no” gets easier and easier on Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears. Pollard’s a fine back and could be quite good on a different offense, but just 3.9 yards per carry and two targets in the last two weeks as Spears has been the pass catcher. ### Running Backs **Quinshon Judkins ($5,400)** missed last week, but we’d think he’ll be back for this one. He had dominated the carries for them prior to last week, but has averaged 3.0 yards per carry without an elite pass game role. He’s not in play. If he’s out again, we don’t like any of the fill-ins. They gave nine carries to both McLaughlin and Estime, and Watson ran a bit more. So there’s no “step in RB” for Judkins. Needless to say, Cam Ward is still struggling. ![](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!EhBn!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F61216c5b-7cc7-474f-9202-c82a6f3c20b1_1314x768.png) I haven’t played a Titan all year, and I don’t really intend to start it this week. But there’s one WR we’ll get to who has been quite good lately even with Ward at QB. ### Pass Catchers Nobody’s dominating the targets on the Browns side. That makes it really thin for everybody. They can so easily turn in low-volume games, so you’re reliant on big plays to get these guys to a good score. ![](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!oHru!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F9cefac3f-3334-4271-90e3-4eaf00da932b_960x356.png) Boston’s been the big play maker. But he doesn’t have more than seven targets in a game and with the deep routes he runs and Watson’s lack of ability, he catches less than half (49%) of his targets. He’ll probably grab a couple more 40+ yard touchdowns this year, but nobody here is cash viable in this game. **Carnell Tate ($5,100)** has had two very good games in the last three with a two-pointer sandwiched between. ![](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!WSsX!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F4530ca1f-5eb3-4890-a648-4b171a01809e_1316x768.png) The guy is really good. 28% target share, 28% target per route, 2.15 yards per route. He can splash big games, but you see the floor that has developed. Not cash-worthy in a low-total, but you could do worse. He will project pretty well with this role. ### Recap This is the first game I did, but I could see paying down for **Deshaun Watson** at QB or going with **Carnell Tate** to get that elite role and talent for his still pretty cheap price tag. --- # Giants at Texans ![](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!OR9r!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F3c8cbe96-c2bb-45b2-ad72-0afef4f1edb0_1892x456.png) ![](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ZOQU!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F144032ba-c92d-43b0-a9c9-21b098cb27eb_1914x414.png) It’s **JJ McCarthy ($4,800)** time, and he gets fed directly to the wolves against a tough Texans defense on the road. The Giants come in as the week’s biggest underdog, implied for just 16 points. ### Quarterbacks **JJ McCarthy ($4,800)** is a cheap quarterback who can run a little bit. But we can’t forget about this performance last year, where he completed 57% of his passes for 6.6 yards per attempt, a -0.2 EPA, and an 11:12 TD:INT. Historically bad. He did go 11/19 for 243 yards, a touchdown, a pick, and a +0.21 EPA on around 20 dropbacks last week. So it was better, but it was also less than half of a game. I don’t think I have anywhere near the guts to play McCarthy even at the price and in a game where he’ll probably have to throw it a good number of times. **CJ Stroud ($5,700)** is still under $6K, and he’s been playing his best football. +0.14 EPA, 7.9 yards per attempt, nine touchdowns, one interception. He’s thrown for 347, 261, and 312 yards the last three games, and the Texans have been a lot more willing to throw it this year with their run game being so ineffective. They’ve averaged just 3.6 yards per carry but those 7.8 when they throw it. Stroud has just a 16-76-1 rushing line in six games, so you’re not getting more than a point or two usually from his legs. It’s probably not a spot where they’ll have to throw the ball deep into a competitive game, but they might just let Stroud do the work since they can’t run the ball. I think he’s too expensive to consider in this game, but he’s certainly played his way more onto my radar this year. ### Running Backs With David Montgomery out, **Woody Marks ($5,600)** has seen 19 and 18 opportunities the last two weeks, but he’s turned that into 12.5 and 10 DraftKings points. He’s gone 30-118-0 on the ground and 6-48-0 through the air (seven targets). It could be worse, and this is the perfect kind of game to play a running back in. The Giants are one of the worst defenses in the league against the rush, and the Texans would be set to give Marks 20+ opportunities if they really win this game by more than a touchdown, as its projected. We should consider Marks in cash this week. The Giants punished Skattebo for a fumble last week, and didn’t play him at all. The carries: Tracy 6, Singletary 4, Harris 4\. But they cut Harris this week, so Skattebo should be the starter again, you’d think, after serving that punishment. But there’s no way you can go there. ### Pass Catchers **Nico Collins ($7,200)** is healthy and dominating again. It’s a good spot for him to make another big play or two, but not a high-volume environment as the 10-point favorite. Collins has been targeted on 23% of his routes and has 2.7 yards per route run. He’s in play for tourneys; you can stack him up with Stroud and just hope that McCarthy can do enough to have the Texans trying to score touchdowns into the fourth quarter. If the Texans get a big league, you can feel confident that Collins will be a part of that. So he’s a good play, but just not quite optimal for cash. The targets after Collins gets his are up in the air. **Marvin Harrison Jr. ($4,200)** got involved last week, but not fully so. Nine routes, four targets, 3-34-0\. I think he’ll do better for fantasy in Houston, and he’ll be running more and more routes as he gets integrated into the offense. The price is very low, but for now it’s still too risky/questionable to pull on. **Jaylin Noel ($3,900)** ran 21 routes last week and made a couple big plays for a 4-107-1 line. He’s gone 9-148-2 the last two weeks. The big play upside is there, but he’ll be hard-pressed to see more than a handful of targets. A big question for fantasy leagues is about if McCarthy can hold up **Malik Nabers ($6,800)** and **Isaiah Likely ($5,300)**. McCarthy sent six of his 19 targets to Nabers for a 4-95-0 line, and four to Likely for a 2-44-1 line. Those two have dominated the work, but with a new QB in there we don’t know how it shakes out, and we have no confidence in McCarthy to make it happen. And these prices have risen again. ### Recap We like some Texans in this game. The best cash play I’m seeing is **Woody Marks**, but I think you can do Stroud + Collins in a tourney lineup as well. --- # Colts at Vikings ![](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!4tip!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0d29aa6e-d68b-4538-8f9b-5c2ecfc3584e_1900x458.png) ![](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!1tCm!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7dfe704a-8b69-45c0-ad25-be29f9148a25_1904x378.png) Another bad game environment. A 41.5-point total. The Colts take their bad offense to Minnesota to face an elite defense. The Vikings are getting healthier with Jordan Mason and Jordan Addison possibly returning. They haven’t had their full cast together much at all this year, but the 85 offensive grade shows you what happens with Kyler Murray in at QB. I like the Vikings side more than the Colts side, obviously, but I don’t think there are going to be plays in this game. Kyler has been bad. A -.08 EPA, 6.6 yards per attempt, 2:2 TD:INT. He was able to get a touchdown to **Justin Jefferson ($7,300)** last time they played (6-79-1). They haven’t played together much at all, with both guys missing games this year. That week five game was a positive sign for Jefferson in fantasy leagues; he saw 24% of the targets, 23% TPRR, and 2.6 yards per route run. But those aren’t super elite numbers like we’re used to from JJ. I’m not sure we can play the dude with Kyler at QB even against this bad Colts defense. But for tourneys - you can do that. Jordan Mason returning would put the kabash on the Minnesota running game. **Aaron Jones ($6,200)** would be a nice play if Mason doesn’t come back. His price has dropped back down to a reasonable level, and he’s been a volume beast with Mason out. That’s important news to monitor, because I do think I would have Jones in consideration if Mason misses again. The guy on the Colts side to hold your nose and play might be **Keenan Allen ($4,800)**. He has 20 targets the last two games, but he’s +$500 in price and just isn’t a great playmaker at this point in his storied career. Only 13-127-0 on 20 targets. That game last week was certainly aided by Tyler Warren being out, who is questionable for this week. I don’t think there’s a world I get myself on Allen, but you can get a decent target floor from him if Warren remains out. ### Recap Jefferson for tourneys, Jones for cash if Mason misses, and maybe a gross play on Keenan Allen if Warren has to miss again. --- # Dolphins at Jets ![](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!i8wS!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F54606c33-9ddf-41ca-a1fd-5236c8ac42bd_1892x454.png) ![](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!EehL!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F47541e2f-bc7a-4a2d-83f5-2922554d8e8b_1884x388.png) A 38.5-point total in this one to match CLE/TEN. Two of the worst teams in the league are matched up in this one. The Dolphins are coming off their bye, so we didn’t get new information in week six. The Jets are down to 4.8 yards per play and 4.7 the last two weeks. Maybe they’ll get Breece Hall back this week, and the Dolphins are a team you can score on. They’re the favorite with a 21.5-point implication. It’s not an immediate fade game, so we’ll go through it. ### Quarterbacks **Geno Smith ($5,100)** is sort of like Watson as a super cheap QB in a good matchup. Geno hasn’t turned the ball over (one interception), but the offense isn’t reliable enough for points. He has seven touchdowns in six games and a +.07 EPA with a 7.5 YPA and only 42 rushing yards all year. If I’m paying down at QB, it’s not going to be him. Can we get some more rushing for **Malik Willis ($4,700)?** He did go 8-74-1 last week, which we love to see. But he has two games below 20 rushing yards and has been awful as a passer this year, so you fully need 50+ rushing yards and a couple of TDs (passing or throwing) to make it work. It’s not for cash. ### Running Backs **Breece Hall ($6,000)** would definitely be a play if he’s back and 100%, but **Braelon Allen ($5,900)** played well enough in his absence to justify a role while they get Hall back into the swing of things. Maybe we’ll get news that Hall is 100% back to normal. At that point, I’d like him. But we’ll see. **Ollie Gordon ($5,500)** has two targets in the last two games with no Achane, but he’s been a beast on the ground with 27-188-2 in those two games. He needs the Dolphins to generate touchdowns for him to make it work. The floor is quite low. He needs the long rush to get to the yardage since he’s not going to have many games with 20+ carries, and the implied total here suggests that it’s a really thin path to multiple touchdowns. Too low of a floor and too low of a ceiling to go there. ### Pass Catchers It’s **Garrett Wilson ($6,500)** as the best play in this game. He has dominated the work for the Jets and has seen two games over 100 yards with three touchdowns scored in six games. There’s no floor in these two offenses, though. Wilson has two sub-10-point games in his last two, but also two games above 25 in his last four. He can smash; he can certainly be a part of the optimal lineup at lower ownership this week. For cash, though? With Geno Smith and a 38.5-point total? Probably not, right? The price is good, though. He came down after a dud and has this awesome set of skills and a great role. ![](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!VEsO!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F3693eb0c-6aa6-4b66-a373-591ac0c2130b_962x216.png) I’m throwing him on the list, but it would be a “last click because the price works” play at best. **Chris Bell ($3,400)** might be something. He got hurt in December and slid down the draft board. But he’s getting healthier and more involved. In his last two games, he has 73% of the snaps, 15% of the targets, and a 17% TPRR. ![](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!5hfK!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fbb54a04f-d1aa-4ed5-acee-33ba25fe9910_968x222.png) So his role is developing. He’s a talented rookie, but not much NFL experience and one of the worst passing QBs throwing it to him. That’s very thin, but I do see the price coming up from here. ### Recap Garrett Wilson is only the play I’m seeing in the conversation. Chris Bell might be a “gross punt” option with some upside as he gets more and more involved. We’ll see where the slate takes us. --- # Broncos at Cardinals ![](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!MLrJ!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fab6eb2e4-79c6-4998-bd2a-506fcef5e992_1890x460.png) ![](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!xXPx!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb0467bc4-34ca-4d7a-b5da-e42054c55a44_1880x408.png) The Broncos defense has come alive and has a very strong 115 grade again. That makes it tough for the Cardinals, even at home, and they come in with an implied total below 20\. Brissett’s now down to a 5.7 yards per pass attempt and a 9:6 TD:INT. With Harrison gone, the targets have been more spread. And they haven’t picked a feature back yet. So it’s really, really thin on the Arizona side. And then **Bo Nix**… 4.9-yard ADoT, 60% completion rate, 5.5 yards per attempt. He’s been really bad. He’s not playing in a way where he can accumulate fantasy points. It’s wild to see. It’s just ineffective dump-offs. Weird stuff, but it’s made everybody on the Broncos side pretty irrelevant. This isn’t the lowest total game on the board, and the Broncos do face a bad defense. But there’s nobody in this game to even consider. It’s probably the easiest fade game of the week now that I’m looking at them all together. --- # Packers at Lions ![](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!lw5o!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F79257b36-d697-4621-b188-10ac61960435_1908x460.png) ![](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ixpJ!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F04359725-5715-413f-9f4f-5aa3d71a9894_1890x430.png) The Lions matchup is back! And it’s in the dome in Denver. Beautiful spot for both teams, and it’s the highest total of the week. The Lions have given up 0.42 DraftKings points per snap to QBs to lead the league. ![](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!gU7e!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6b915e54-efde-42ee-81c4-69f40982d74c_497x201.png) They are a “pass funnel”. They score a lot of points and don’t defend the pass, so teams are happy to throw, and they’re often forced to throw anyway. The Packers have been beaten best on the ground. ![](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!9p_P!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fcc07f173-17e6-4347-8386-461fd4238ea5_500x156.png) Fourth-worst in allowing points to RBs, and pretty good against pass games. ### Quarterbacks **Jared Goff ($6,800)** is a strong season-long play every time at home, but as he gets closer to $7K in DFS, it’s tougher to push the button on for cash. As we saw above, the Packers have given up more points to RBs than pass attacks, so with the price, I don’t think we’re putting Goff on the list. **Jordan Love ($6,000)** has crossed $6K, but it’s his best matchup of the year. He projects for 21 points. Their pass game has been great; they have two stud wide receivers playing well, so Love is in consideration as a mid-range QB you can feel pretty good about. ### Running Backs **Josh Jacobs ($6,300)** returns. I doubt he’s the feature back right away since he’s been away from the team all year. MarShawn Lloyd and company have not been good, so Jacobs will eventually assume the bell cow role, but it’s too early to play him. **Jahmyr Gibbs ($9,800)** is on his way to $10K, but isn’t there yet. He’s paid $9.8K off three times, and his minimum score is 17 points. ![](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!fGph!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fcd9c648d-78cf-4e84-b923-aadcecc5f313_716x455.png) The Packers get abused by running backs, and Gibbs is the best fantasy player in the game, and I don’t think it’s particularly close. The projection is 26 points. At this price, I can’t say it’s a “must-play, " but he’s still a guy you want for cash. He’s $1,300 above Bijan, but in a much better matchup. The price is going to have to justify the play; I’m not going to force myself to play him if that means I have to take 2-3 guys for cheap that I don’t really like. ### Pass Catchers **Amon-Ra St. Brown ($7,800)** and **Sam LaPorta ($4,800)** are similar to Goff. Very good plays; they should score, but do you want to pay the big tags for them against a Packers defense that can hold its own against the pass? That might be thinking too much about it. I certainly would be fine to play St. Brown at $7,800 - that price really isn’t that crazy. For LaPorta, it might be a little too expensive. But they’re both on the list. The best plays in this game seem to be **Christian Watson ($7,000)** and **Matthew Golden ($6,000)**. Watson has more fantasy points, but the numbers look pretty similar on these guys. ![](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!jNXD!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd60676c5-6985-40ec-9541-644692741926_480x140.png) Golden leads the team in targets at 58, Watson’s at 48\. But Watson has double the touchdowns. I don’t see a $1K difference here, though. Golden looks to be a terrific play, and both guys are in play. They take almost half the targets, so it’s a concentrated pass game in the best matchup you can find. ### Recap I didn’t really dig into much there, but the plays are clear. 1. Gibbs $9,800 2. Golden $6,000 3. Love $6,000 4. Watson $7,000 5. St. Brown $7,800 6. LaPorta $4,800 It’s pretty easy to know who the plays are for cash; it's harder to put them together in the right combination to get past the cash line. --- # Rams at Raiders ![](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Pn8O!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F18da6ec5-8d02-4a8b-b670-7049b048c389_1890x460.png) ![](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!QWMU!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fff733255-3cd1-4270-a596-994b7271dc06_1888x392.png) The Rams came out flat last week and lost after being a huge favorite with a 33-point implication. Now they head to Las Vegas without Davante Adams. But they’re up there with a 26-point implication. ### Quarterbacks The floor is too low for Matthew Stafford $6,400 at this price. And the Rams defense has been great, so the Raiders are tough plays. Neither QB makes it. ### Running Backs **Kyren Williams ($7,000)** let us down last week. Even with the game being tight the whole time, **Blake Corum** received nine of the 20 carries. So he was in there taking stuff away from Kyren. And now Williams goes up further in price. He did see six more targets, but didn’t convert them for much (3-17-0). I think it’s too expensive for Kyren with Corum playing a good amount and the Rams on the road against a non-awful defense. **Ashton Jeanty ($6,500)** seems to suck. He’s clearly not healthy, but he’s still playing every game. His snap rate did come to 57% last week, and they should probably keep it there. He averaged 2.2 yards per carry last week but saw six more targets for a 4-36-0 line, and he scored a rushing touchdown. So he’s an awful rusher, but keeps getting to a decent fantasy score with touchdowns and lay-up targets. **Mike Washington** ran it nine times for 43 yards last week. He’s averaged 4.9 yards per carry this week to Jeanty’s 3.2\. Eventually you’d think they’d go to him more on the ground. We’re still waiting for them to give Jeanty a week off to get healthy, but it doesn’t seem like it’s happening. So we don’t have that Washington value yet. But it’s coming, I think. ### Pass Catchers **Brock Bowers ($7,700)** is up near $8K. If the Raiders move the ball, it’s through him. 27% TPRR, 2.6 YPRR, three touchdowns in four games. But the price is a bit uncomfortable to me. I’m almost certain we can’t pay this for a tight end in cash. But if you want to do some game stacking, he’s the man on the Raiders side. **Puka Nacua ($8,400)** is still not expensive enough. And he could legitimately average 15 targets per game with Adams gone for a couple of months. He went only 6-80-0 last week on seven targets. They completed just 25 passes as they struggled. Adams didn’t get hurt until the very last play, so there was no boost to be had there. He’s going to get absolutely peppered, and it’s a fine matchup. Nacua is the priority play of the week in my book. **Tyler Higbee ($3,500)** has another week without Terrance Ferguson healthy. He has seen 16 targets the last three weeks for a 14-172-0 line. He’s played 71% of the snaps, so he’s not giving up a ton to Colby Parkinson. I think he’s a terrific tight end play this week that doesn’t have a lot of greatness there. ### Recap I’m locking in Puka again. And I’m pretty into Higbee at $3,500. --- # Player Pool I wrote all of that up without looking at the projections. That’s a good way to do it. When I find the plays I like without looking at the projections, and then the projections back that up - those plays tend to end up as the best ones. So we’ll see where I was right and what I missed. ### Quarterbacks 1. Jordan Love $6,000 2. Deshaun Watson $5,200 3. Michael Penix $5,300 4. CJ Stroud $5,700 5. Lamar Jackson $6,700 *tourneys only with the ankle situation* 6. Joe Burrow $6,900 *tourney game stacks only* **Jordan Love** is the best value in the projections; that was pretty easy to see. **Bo Nix $5,000** is #2, but I’m not willing to go there with his how he’s played this year. I get it, though; much better matchup against the Cardinals. I didn’t give **CJ Stroud** enough respect; he’s #3 in the value projections. And **Deshaun Watson** isn’t too bad, either at #6 on the value board. But I think we can get to Love for this Lions matchup. --- ### Running Backs 1. Jahmyr Gibbs $9,800 2. Bijan Robinson $8,500 3. Christian McCaffrey $7,600 *boosted if Evans is out* 4. Braelon Allen $5,900 5. Woody Marks $5,600 6. Chuba Hubbard $6,700 7. Derrick Henry $7,900 *tourneys, game stacks only* 8. Aaron Jones $6,100 *if Mason doesn’t return* 9. Bucky Irving $6,100 *tourneys* We got an update on Breece Hall, and it seems like he’s not going to play. That’s not for sure, but he hasn’t practiced yet. So **Braelon Allen $5,900** becomes a strong play against the Dolphins again. The price has pushed **Gibbs** down off the #1 value spot. But that doesn’t really account for his ceiling, so he’s still a fantastic play I’d love to make. Just not sure I can get there with Nacua and a $6K QB. CMC is the top dog at $7,600\. A 23-point projection. I’d still rather click that with Evans out, but it’s fine either way. It looks to me like the short list for cash is CMC, Marks, Gibbs, and Allen. --- ### Wide Receivers 1. Puka Nacua $8,400 2. Matthew Golden $6,000 3. Amon-Ra St. Brown $7,000 4. Christian Watson $7,800 5. Garrett Wilson $6,500 6. Drake London $7,500 7. Zay Flowers $6,900 8. Nico Collins $7,200 9. Emeka Egbuka $5,700 10. Tee Higgins $6,600 11. Ja’Marr Chase $8,100 12. Carnell Tate $5,100 13. Chris Bell $3,400 14. Jordan Watkins $3,300 *if Evans is out* The projections say: Flowers, Nacua, Golden, St. Brown, Coker, London So I was mostly on it. Flowers is an elite talent in a great matchup, and he’s way cheaper than the other big-time studs. So I might actually play Flowers in cash, I think for the first time ever. Lamar was LIMPING in practice, so it could be a more pass-heavy attack for them, and the Jackson + Flowers thing has been the best per-snap attack in the league. Nacua and Golden are pretty much locks. The cheap guys… not really there. **Carnell Tate $5,100**, **KC Concepcion $4,400, Omar Cooper Jr. $4,100** are the best projections below the $5K(ish) price. I ignored Cooper in the Jets game write-up. He ran 27 routes last week for a 6-103-1 line on seven targets. So he looks like the WR2 now. But that’s just one game of proving it, and it’s the Jets… it’s the Jets. But it’s the Jets against the Dolphins, so okay. Maybe that’s an ugly play we need to make for the price. ### Tight Ends 1. Tyler Higbee $3,500 2. George Kittle $5,700 *if Evans is out* 3. Kyle Pitts $4,000 4. Sam LaPorta $4,800 Projections have Kittle towering above the field in value. A 17.8-point projection, that projection assumes that Evans doesn’t play. If Evans is out, I do think Kittle is a priority, but I’m still not sure if we can pay it. I want to pay down at TE this week. The best option, as I spotted, is Tyler Higbee at $3,500\. Cade Otton at $3,100 is also decent. ### Defenses 1. Titans $2,600 2. Texans $3,400 3. Browns $2,800 4. Jets $2,900 5. Dolphins $2,300 As of right now, there isn’t a ton of value. I don’t think it’s going to be a comfortable build. But we definitely need a cheap defense. The Titans (vs. CLE) are the best one. We’ve used them a few times already, but the price and matchup make sense. --- # The Build The optimal has a mega-punt at WR, and it’s **Ja’Kobi Lane $3,400** for the Ravens. No Gibbs, but we get Kittle + CMC + Nacua. ![](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!8YH9!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff5aef7e4-309d-4c14-b6bc-c937beade71c_619x571.png) That will change if Evans suits up, and it’ll probably change anyways since I’m publishing this on Thursday before that Friday injury report comes out. I suppose I should’ve respected **Tucker Kraft** a bit more. He’s the #3 guy in the Packers pass attack, and they’re all boosted up for this game. So it’s a two-tight-end week, probably. If we play Higbee instead of Kraft, we can get up from Lane to someone like Concepcion. That projects a bit worse, obviously, since we manipulated off the optimal. --- # Prop Bets What the detailed projections are saying: - Baker Mayfield under pass 219.5 yards - Tyler Shough under pass 206.5 yards - Sione Vaki over rush 8.5 yards - Alvin Kamara over 16.5 rush yards - JJ McCarthy under 33.5 pass attempts - Roschon Johnson over 7.5 receiving yards Tons more plays in the app, hit the “Betting Projections” page and then the “Prop Opportunities” tab. # Polymarket Plays This is just me spit-balling after looking at each game. Here are the game winners I like: - Ravens 48% / 2.06x - Bucs 40% / 2.5x - Falcons 42% / 2.4x - Texans 81% / 1.24x - Cardinals 34% / 2.99x - Packers 38% / 2.61x Totals: - Patriots/Bears under 50.5 - Steelers/Saints over 44.5 - Colts/Vikings under 41.5 - 49ers/Falcons under 49.5 - Browns/Titans over 37.5 - Packers/Lions over 53.5 Here’s to a successful Sunday of football!