> ## Content Index > Fetch the complete content index at: https://mlb-data-warehouse.ghost.io/llms.txt > Use this file to discover other available public pages before exploring further. # NFL DFS Breakdown: Week Four - URL: https://mlb-data-warehouse.ghost.io/nfl-dfs-breakdown-week-four/ - Published: 2026-10-01T23:36:31.000Z - Updated: 2026-10-14T17:34:29.000Z - Author: Jon Anderson NFL DFS week four breakdown! ![](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Q8g9!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F28fd2311-a07d-4256-bca5-f89a3b8200ac_1057x910.png) [Subscribe now](%%checkout%5Furl%%) --- # Implied Totals 1. Bills 27.75 (vs. NE) 2. Ravens 27.5 (vs. TEN) 3. Bengals 27.0 (vs. JAX) 4. Chiefs 26 (vs. LV) Those are the big four on the board. The highest O/U’s: 1. CIN vs JAX: 51.5 2. DET vs. CAR: 50.5 (not on main slate) 3. BUF vs. NE: 48.5 4. ATL vs. NOR: 48.5 (not on main slate) 5. KAN vs. LV: 47.5 6. IND vs. WAS: 47.5 (not on main slate) 7. HOU vs. DAL: 47.5 The lowest totals: 1. MIA vs. MIN: 38.5 2. PIT vs. CLE: 38.5 (not on main slate) 3. TB vs. GB: 42.5 4. NYJ vs. CHI: 42.5 5. SEA vs. LAC: 42.5 --- # Cardinals at Giants ![](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!eLeb!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1d608553-ffc6-498d-9849-0cb4ea5f5477_844x285.png) We’ve got three weeks of data now so we can start talking about team grades. ![](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!EW2S!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F01c09794-debd-4f94-9031-d789e73e6cee_512x137.png) Two below-average teams on both sides of the ball (this uses yards per play, which still wouldn’t have stabilized yet, but we’re getting closer). Arizona has shown the ability to score points with Jacoby Brissett and company, and they are very willing to let Brissett chuck the ball 40+ times. The problem is that the Giants are still going with **Jameis Winston**, who has gone 24/49 for a 4.7 YPA this year on a pathetic -0.42 EPA. They traded for JJ McCarthy, which tells you something about Winston too. So we don’t think the Giants will push this game to being a shootout. Volume is so important in DFS. We want players on offenses that run a bunch of plays, it makes it a whole lot easier for them to get there for us. This game isn’t going to be super important for me, but the Cardinals do have some plays to drill into. ### Quarterbacks **Jacoby Brissett ($5,000)** needs to be pushed into a high-volume game to get there. The Giants aren’t going to do it. **Jameis Winston ($4,500)** is up $500 and has proven again that he’s not good. This is not the game to draft a QB from. I’m going to be off the Giants side of this game entirely. ### Running Backs My first hunch in this game was that we might be able to use **Jeremiyah Love ($5,800)**. His data by week: - Week 1: 32 snaps, 11 attempts, 15 routes, 4 targets - Week 2: 19 snaps, 9 attempts, 8 routes, 3 targets - Week 3: 51 snaps, 21 attempts, 21 routes, 5 targets We learned last week that he’s the guy they want in the game when it’s going fast-paced and they really need to make some plays. He scored 22 fantasy points last week on 4.3 yards per carry and a 5-19-1 line through the air. That sent **Tyler Allgeier** down to 30 snaps, two attempts, and four targets. But they were playing catch up to the 49ers in a high-scoring affair. That’s unlikely to be the case this week. So will they go back to a backfield split? That’s quite possible. Allgeier’s coaches have always seemed to like him, he was taking meaningful snaps from Bijan Robinson for a couple of years there. So it would not be surprising at all to see this go back to a split. Playing Love in cash is betting that last week was the new game plan. And that might not be a good bet. He was a big-play star in college, but we haven’t seen it yet in the NFL (3.9 yards per carry). If Allgeier were out for the game, I think Love would become a smash play. But I have enough doubts about his workload to be hesitant about making him a cash play. But he’s going on the list. ### Pass Catchers When you throw the ball 51 times, some pass catchers will smash. The volume expectation is way down from that height this week. But we know where the ball goes - **Trey McBride ($6,500)** and **Michael Wilson ($5,500)**. ![](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!4kIL!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe989fa02-0e69-465d-aee7-4b948ee59755_384x301.png) Nearly 60% of the targets go to those two. Wilson has a 25% TPRR; McBride’s at 34%. Wilson has 1.4 yards per route run (YPRR), McBride’s at 2.1\. Those are the guys. But the prices have trended up, so neither guy is a super high priority, but they should both be in consideration. But I have to repeat it every over and over again. Any little problem we find with a play makes it tough to play them in our single cash lineup. These things have to be perfect. And if the Cardinals dominate the game and run it a bunch with Love & Allgeier, Wilson and McBride will have a much tougher time getting a bunch of volume. ### Recap Three Cardinals make the list. That’s Love, McBride, and Wilson. But I’m not confident enough in the Giants ability to push them to put them high on their respective lists. --- # Titans at Ravens ![](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!qcV9!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff381505b-584b-4c6e-8948-660f41c357de_868x276.png) A 43.5-point total with the Ravens owning most of them. It’s a **Derrick Henry** week if you’re choosing from that side. These are the spots you want to use that guy in - at home when they should hold a lead. ![](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ZTYP!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd3338b41-71f9-47f7-8783-76bc4f4ccdcc_509x136.png) The shootout isn’t going to happen. The Titans are bad. Cam Ward isn’t an NFL QB right now, so it should be a relatively light volume day for the Ravens passing game. The Ravens defense isn’t a great one, but it’s not awful either, so we’re just going to continue to outright fade the Titans offense until we see Cam Ward make some strides forward (if that ever happens). ### Quarterbacks **Lamar Jackson ($7,300)** got a bit cheaper (-$200). Even in an elite spot like last week against the Cowboys, I couldn’t get to his price in cash. That’s usually not the way to make a solid cash lineup. And as an 11-point favorite at home the ceiling is way lower since we figure this game won’t be a 35-28 affair. ### Running Backs **Derrick Henry ($8,400)** jumps up $700 for this game. He has 24, 16, and 26 carries in his three games this year and has averaged 4.6 yards per tote with 1, 3, and 1 targets. They have made him a tough click at $8,400\. He will need the 100-yard bonus and multiple scores to really make this worthwhile. But this is the most likely spot of the year for him to do such a thing in as a massive favorite at home. If they’re up 21 in the 4th quarter, they probably won’t play him - but he will also likely have been a part of the 3+ touchdowns that got them up by that much. I’ll put him on the list; he’s a top 5 play at RB in a vacuum this week, but $8,400 for a non-pass-catching RB isn’t typically the right recipe for DFS cash. ### Pass Catchers If I’m not considering Lamar, I’m not considering a Ravens pass catcher. It’s a thin group. **Zay Flowers** **($6,900)** returned last week and got through the game healthy, so they’ll be fully healthy for this game and that takes away any value. Flowers can, and has, smashed on extremely limited playing time. The dude has gone 10-234-1 on 25 routes this year for goodness sake, but it’s wayyy too thin to consider in this matchup. ### Recaps It’s **Derrick Henry ($8,400)** or nothing in this game, and it’ll probably end up being nothing. I’m really focused on targeting games I think can get to 50+ points and a bunch of plays run, and this isn’t one of them. --- # Patriots at Bills ![](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Eoex!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F94d34a13-edb3-47df-8593-614613b8681f_871x272.png) What is going on with the Patriots? They’re 1-2 and got undressed by the Jaguars last week. ![](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!F5qn!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F4b678870-3d26-4bbf-a5fb-5621bc8e0818_508x136.png) **Drake Maye** has regressed majorly. There are real questions about him after this early-season performance against SEA/PIT/JAX. He doesn’t have much help with his weapons since AJ Brown went out in week one, so it’s too early to jump ship. But it’s not an offense we can trust to play ball with Josh Allen and the Bills right now. ### Quarterbacks **Josh Allen ($7,700)** struggled last week. He threw for 204 yards on 26 attempts and threw two interceptions. He saved his fantasy day with two more rushing touchdowns (he has six of those in three games now). Now he faces a tough Patriots pass defense and he’s the most expensive QB on the slate as per the usual arrangement. The Bills have a high points implication, but it needs to be high odds of a shootout to get Josh Allen’s price into this cash lineup. He’s always a play for tourneys, his ceiling is just so high. Maybe some week this year we’ll use him. We’ll need some massive value at WR/TE to get there, and I don’t see it this week. Even if we find it, Josh Allen at this price against the Patriots probably isn’t the right move. ### Running Backs **James Cook ($7,400)** has averaged six yards per carry this year but has been very limited in the passing game (4-16-0) and has had those six touchdowns pilfered from him by his QB. And now his price comes up $500 for this less-than-great spot. He will get his 17+ carries and there are plenty of touchdowns to go around in this offense, but it’s just not the right spot. Rhamondre Stevenson fumbled in week two and hit the bench, but came back to play 55% of the snaps (Henderson was at 33%) last week. So he’s still the main guy. They did split the carries pretty evenly last week with him and Henderson, but the offense just couldn’t do anything. I don’t think I need to prove to anybody that neither of these New England running backs are in play while they’re both active and healthy. ### Pass Catchers The Bills pass catchers had a down game last week due to the lack of volume. We’ve already gone over that the Patriots are a tough pass defense. So it’s not a great spot for these guys. But we’ve seen very positive things from **DJ Moore ($5,700)** so far. He dominated the targets last week with 10 of Allen’s 25 targets and went 6-67-0\. He has a nice 32% target per route run this year, so the volume is there. **Dalton Kincaid ($5,300)** did very little last week on the low volume, but he at least did run a route on almost every drop back. His ceiling seems to be among the highest at the tight end position. But it’s another cash game thing we find. It’s just hard to pay big money for a tight end. Kincaid certainly doesn’t have the same floor as Bowers/McBride, although he’s not at that price range yet either. But the optimal strategy in the normal week is to either pay for Bowers/McBride or find the best play below $4K. The tourney angle here is that Moore gets shut down by Gonzalez on the outside and the targets filter more to Kincaid. He could smash in this game, I have little doubt about that, it’s just mostly about the price and the worries that the Patriots could slow down the Bills a bit. Kincaid’s going on the list, but I think that’s it from this game. The Patriots might have to throw it a bunch in this game. It’s usually not a bad idea to get some pass catchers against them. But Maye has played poorly and the targets have been very spread. Weeks 2-3: **Hollins 12, Doubs 8, Henry 7, Douglas 7, Stevenson 5, Williams 5, Chism 3, Gilliam 2**. Not a good spot. ### Recap These first three games are LAME. I’m putting Kincaid on the list, but I don’t suspect I’ll be using anybody from this one. --- # Jets at Bears ![](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ZXJx!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc24fe465-aca9-4b5a-83bb-20f7467956d3_867x276.png) The Jets were instrumental to last week’s slate. They proved to be good enough to participate in a shootout with the Lions, and now they face a Bears defense that was viewed as one of the worst in the league before the year. ![](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!uJd0!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F896e05b0-e60f-4733-8bad-8593d5df3fab_511x134.png) The Bears sure look like a shootout team to mean. Good offense, bad defense. But it’s **Case Keenum** at QB in all likelihood after his MNF victory. And while he played well, it’s not the same as if Caleb Williams is in there. Let’s have a look. ### Quarterbacks **Geno Smith ($5,200)** has 215, 247, and 321 passing yards in three games this year. He threw three touchdowns last week. So he can beat bad defenses. But this offense needs pushed, and now he’s without Breece Hall. Can **Case Keenum ($4,600)** replicate last week and make the Jets run a bunch of plays to get there? It’s possible. These are two very cheap QBs in decent spots, and we like that. But the game total being at 42.5 is bothersome, and neither guy runs with the ball. We ideally want ceiling from our QB plays, and I don’t think we have it here. And if the touchdowns don’t come, they’ll end up with pretty poor scores. But I don’t completely hate it. ### Running Backs **Breece Hall ($6,200)** isn’t technically out, but he’s “week to week” and it seems like he’s going to miss this one. **Braelon Allen ($5,200)** steps into the starter role. The Hall injury happened in the second half last week, so we didn’t get a great look at the role. But Allen played 48% of the snaps and had a role even before Hall got hurt, so we can be pretty confident he’s going to see 12+ touches in this one with upside for 20. Allen has averaged just 3.2 yards per carry and has just a 13% target per route run, so he’s not a guy oozing with upside who was just waiting for an opportunity. But we like $5,200 running backs who step into starting roles. He should be a bit more expensive, so he’s definitely in play against the Bears. Let’s look at the Bears backfield numbers for the year: ![](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Ad-S!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F257d2a8e-cbf3-46dd-96c0-efe02a6cd7ee_429x119.png) ![](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!dWLr!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa34ae1f8-ba1a-4e29-86ab-8b1a563df4f9_562x155.png) So it’s about a 60/40 split. Keenum only targeted the RBs three times last week (all to Swift). Swift has averaged three targets per game, so that’s just not a huge part of his role in this offense. That makes him a pretty tough click; you’ll absolutely need a big play and/or a score for him to smash in this role. I don’t think it works. ### Pass Catchers Keenum’s targets last week: **Burden 11, Raymond 7, Odunze 6, Loveland 4, Swift 3**. Burden put up a 41% TPRR and 2.3 YPRR, but a 5.1-yard ADoT kept the yardage to 61\. He was somewhat lucky to take a shovel pass for a touchdown. I think the floor is pretty nice with **Burden ($5,200)**, and that price is still very affordable. **Kalif Raymond ($3,600)** remains very cheap despite leading this offense in yards. He’s gone 19-214-1 on 21 targets in three games. He leads the team in yards per route run, too. ![](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!YZft!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6e6f9d50-77f7-461d-89b4-e20313eeb144_482x180.png) Is it for real? Are three games enough to buy it after he was viewed as the 4th or 5th option in this offense before the year began? Maybe. The price is very attractive, even though it does feel a bit “point chasey” to me. I’m only going to consider him if the price makes everything else work, and I’ll be interested to see what the projections around the industry say. **Colston Loveland ($4,700)** shouldn’t be this expensive after seeing just nine targets and a 0.42 YPRR through three games. Geno Smith has something going with **Garrett Wilson ($6,800)**, who jumps up $700 from his price last week after going 10-107-1 on 14 targets last week. He was aided by Adonai Mitchell and Mason Taylor being out, but he’s clearly the WR1 and a very good one at that. The price hike makes it a lot tougher. But I’m not counting him out. **Kenyon Sadiq ($4,000)** had a breakout game last week with Mason Taylor out. Taylor was the starting TE for the first two weeks; he could return for this one, which would make it a tough buy-high on Sadiq. But Sadiq is very, very good. The Jets used the 16th overall pick on him, so he’s going to get used. If Taylor is out again, I’d consider it. He leads the team in yards per route run at 2.6, and they looked for him in the end zone last week. So he’s an awesome player, but I’d rather do it with Mason Taylor still out just so we can be confident we’ll get 20+ routes from him again. ### Recap There’s some cheap QB potential in this one, but I think the floors are probably a bit too low to really consider. **Braelon Allen** is the play I’m most interested in, and the Jets pass catching duo of Garrett Wilson and Kenyon Sadiq are in play as well. But I’m balking a bit at the price on Wilson, and Sadiq could be a trap if Mason Taylor is active and comes back to play significant snaps, which it seems like he will given what we saw in weeks 1-2. --- # Jaguars at Bengals ![](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!xIpQ!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F04c56ddb-552a-4ed6-981a-1a98f52a52d6_864x274.png) This is the best game environment on the main slate. The Bengals just got carved up by Aaron Rodgers and the Steelers, and the Jaguars offense has been effective so far. ### Quarterbacks **Joe Burrow ($6,800)** is up there in price. He doesn’t run, so he’s very dependent on the big day through the air. It could happen in this one. I’d stack this game a bunch in tourneys, and the Bengals attack is easy figure out. You play Burrow with Chase AND Higgins and then come back with Parker Washington or maybe even a low-ownership play on Brian Thomas. For cash, it’s probably not going to be a pocket passer at this price very often. I’ll throw Burrow on the list, because there is a chance this is the price that works. He’s not in the same tier as Allen & Jackson, and his ceiling is pretty huge if this game goes off. **Trevor Lawrence ($5,900)** is the better play of the two, and possibly one of the better QB plays on this particular slate. He’s been very good so far with a +0.26 EPA and 7.7 yards per attempt. He ran for a bunch of touchdowns last year, that would’ve happened last week again had he not strangely taken the knee. The Bengals are a great team to play QBs against, and Lawrence’s price is nice. ### Running Backs **Chase Brown ($6,100)** is pretty cheap for a guy who has played 71% of the snaps and seen 13 targets in three games. He’s averaged 4.0 yards per game and has a real role in the passing game on a team that can score a bunch of points. So I think he deserves consideration. He’s more of a $6,500-$7,000 running back than a $6K guy; I’d call this a discount. **Bhayshul Tuten ($5,600)** is the Jags main RB. He saw 15 carries and two targets last week while playing 53% of the snaps. They still rotate in Chris Rodriguez, LeQuint Allen, and Ameer Abdullah in there, so the workload is never going to be massive for Tuten. But when the play is designed for a running back, Tuten’s the guy they go to. I wouldn’t consider him a cash play because of the roles that these other RBs have, but the signs have been positive on Tuten thus far. ### Pass Catchers **Ja’Marr Chase ($8,100)** and **Tee Higgins ($6,100)** are probably the best 1-2 WR duo in the league. They haven’t been healthy together very often in the last few years, but they have been this year, and you can see how even their numbers are: ![](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!4dnh!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Faec7d688-3cdd-46bc-9bef-1b3b360329ac_1074x248.png) You get a $2,000 discount on Higgins from Chase despite him having just two fewer targets and 60 more receiving yards than Chase. What separates Chase is the red zone usage. They seem to have close-range plays designed specifically for him, so he ends up with more of the touchdowns. Higgins usually does his scoring on longer plays, as we saw last week. Chase is properly priced, and you could argue that Higgins is too cheap. So for cash, if you’re playing one, I think it should be Higgins. There’s a “block” strategy you can play with in DFS. You can play both Chase and Higgins with Burrow and know you’re getting 80%+ of the passing game points. That limits your ceiling, but it raises your floor if you’re really confident the Bengals are going to pile up a bunch of yardage through the air. On the Jaguars side, it’s been **Parker Washington ($6,500)** and then everybody else. Washington has run 68 routes, has 15 targets, and the efficiency has been elite with a 34% TPRR and 3.25 YPRR. It wasn’t the best result last week, but he was targeted heavily in the red zone and scored a touchdown to make for a decent day. I think he should be a $7K receiver, so even while he’s up $600 this week, he’s definitely still a considerable play for cash. **Jakobi Meyers ($5,000)** leads the team in routes run this year but has just a 15% target share and a 16% TPRR. So he’s not getting much attention from Lawrence even while being on the field a bunch. **Brian Thomas ($4,300)** is a buy-low for tourneys. He has lined up against elite corners all year, so this matchup gives him some breathing room. You obviously can’t do it in cash (15% target share, 1.8 YPRR), but for tourneys it’s a great idea to pair with Lawrence and get some lower ownership on the BTJ side. ### Recaps Lots to like in this game. - Trevor Lawrence - Chase Brown - Tee Higgins - Parker Washington - Ja’Marr Chase --- # Cowboys at Texans ![](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!xQJC!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fee1f32ff-1aea-4a9a-8b43-4e5c809081a7_865x275.png) The Cowboys are one of the most fantasy-friendly teams in the game. This looked like their toughest matchup of the year before the season. But the Texans' defense has been average so far, allowing 5.3 yards per play. Their run defense has been stout (3.5 yards per carry), but they’ve been beaten through the air (7.9 yards per attempt - seventh-worst in the league). So maybe it’s not too bad of a spot for the Cowboys after all. They’re back in Texas and playing in a dome, so that’s not a huge concern - even though it would obviously be better if the game were in Dallas. ### Quarterbacks Even with the Texans’ defense not looking as advertised, I still wouldn’t want to jump onto the Cowboys offense. They’re priced right. **Dak Prescott ($6,400)** has gotten a little cheaper this week, but this price isn’t a steal, and I’m hesitant enough about the Texans defense to not consider it. But game stacks are very much in full force for this contest. That would probably mean Dak → Lamb/Pickes with Nico Collins on the other side. **CJ Stroud ($5,700)** gets a great matchup with Dallas who has a bad defense and an offense that can keep the games moving back-and-forth. Stroud just isn’t a very good fantasy QB, though. He has a 6.7 YPA with a -0.06 EPA and a 3:0 TD:INT through three games. Getting **Nico Collins** back in a boost. I guess it’s not a crazy idea for cash if you just need a cheap QB, but Trevor Lawrence seems like a much better play at a similar price. I don’t think I’ll ever end up on Stroud unless he gets down to $5K. ### Running Backs **David Montgomery ($5,700)** and **Woody Marks ($4,700)** have been splitting work. The last two weeks, it’s been Montgomery playing 57% of snaps and Mark at 41%. Montgomery has 17 attempts; Marks has 23\. And neither guy is a big playmaker, so they’re off the board until one of the two gets hurt and misses a game. **Javonte Williams ($6,600)** ripped off 19-98-1 on the ground last week as that rush attack was working well against the Ravens. This is not the defense to use him again, though, and the Cowboys’ preferred game plan is through the air. Williams has not given up much work to the other guys (76% of snaps, 43 of the 55 RB carries), but he’s not an explosive back, and the volume might be low here if they’re shutting him down early. ### Pass Catchers **CeeDee Lamb ($7,800)** and **George Pickens ($6,300)** have been targeted about the same. 26 for Lamb, 25 for Pickens. But Lamb is just the better wide receiver, at least for fantasy leagues. He’s gone 20-309-3 in three games while Pickens is at 16-150-0\. Both guys can ruin the other guy's day by hogging the big plays and touchdowns, but to me the prices just seem right, and it’s too hard to guess at it in this potentially lower-scoring spot for the Cowboys. It’s not a week for me to use the Cowboys. **Nico Collins ($7,200)** would be a very appealing play if we knew he was healthy. I don’t think there’s much doubt that he’ll play, but using him is a bet on him coming right back to full participation. I think that’s a fantastic buy in tournaments, you’re getting massive ceiling at a low ownership, but it’s not going to be a great cash idea in my head. I’ll put him on the list, though, because we do like lower ownership and huge upside in cash too. ### Recap We don’t often want to fade Cowboys games, but this is probably an exception. I’m not going to call the Texans an average defense because of three games. Both teams are at full strength, so there just aren’t any big discounts on the prices. My favorite idea would be to play Nico Collins with Dak → Pickens or Lamb in a tourney. I wouldn’t blame anybody for using Collins in cash, but I don’t think I’ll do it myself. --- *Subscribe today to get the rest of this article and everything else! It really helps out as we try to bulk up MLB DW this fall/winter ahead of next baseball season!* --- # Packers at Bucs ![](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!UG7F!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd9ef4b88-8b15-44ee-9781-935106c46fe0_868x274.png) Bad news for the Bucs as Baker Mayfield will miss time. That brings in **Jalon Daniels ($4,400)** to play QB. We generally like $4K QBs who come into a starting role, but this dude was undrafted out of Kansas. The total is 39.5, which might be low enough. The shootout score hates this one, and that number comes from Mayfield being the QB on the Bucs. This is probably the worst DFS game on the slate. The only potential plays would be the two Green Bay wide receivers. **Christian Watson ($6,700)** and **Matthew Golden ($5,400)**. The running back situation is a mess, and we can’t consider anybody on Tampa Bay with this QB situation going on. Those two have half of the targets for the Packers so far, and both of the skill sets are showing. ![](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!V76-!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1b0bde5a-1295-495c-adc0-c21a84086c2b_1062x258.png) Golden: 30 targets, 15-253-1 Watson: 29 targets, 17-284-4 Golden’s the home run hitter; Watson is the weapon they use the most around the end zone. The price is very low on Golden. He has 12, 6, and 11 targets. But he’s scored 16, 10, and 24 fantasy points. So there’s some downside if he doesn’t catch a long ball. But man, double-digit targets in two games is tough to gloss over at this price. That’s the guy I would consider the most, but I’d rather not have anybody in this game, which could be a really bad one for fantasy production. --- # Rams at Eagles ![](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!F2cY!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2e60079a-73a9-446a-a81e-247fac71ed05_862x278.png) The Eagles got embarrassed on Monday Night by Case Keenum; now they take on the NFC favorite. It’s a lower total than I would have guessed. The Rams offense has been good even without Puka Nacua, and they’re probably getting him back this week. The Eagles are in the middle of the pack in yards per play and scored just seven points in Chicago last time, but we’re not believing them to be a horrible offense. It’s just a gut feeling, I guess, but over 42.5 feels right to me. ### Quarterbacks **Jalen Hurts ($6,600)** is pretty tough to play at this price. The Rams defense is solid, and the Eagles just aren’t moving the ball how they want so far this year. He’s still a rock solid fantasy QB; those rushing TDs are going to come, but it’s too expensive in this situation. **Matthew Stafford ($6,200)** has upside with Adams + Nacua healthy together. But he hasn’t been nearly as good so far this year with a 6:4 TD:INT, 8.1 YPA, and +0.11 EPA. He’s never an appealing DFS play without any rushing ability and a price that is always above some guys we like a lot more. ### Running Backs **Kyren Williams ($5,900)** has 38 carries to Blake Corum’s 28, so that’s pretty tight on the ground. But Williams has 12 targets and two touchdowns. So he can get there even while giving up some carries. But it’s probably not enough of a touch projection to get us there. Nacua is back to get his 8+ targets, which makes Williams very touchdown dependent. **Saquon Barkley ($6,800)** is too expensive for a running back with a questionable offensive line ahead of him and limited work in the passing game. He’s run only 28 routes in three games with 3-6-0 through the air on six targets. ### Pass Catchers The Eagles trio: ![](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!NULt!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff2701bc0-a15d-40c5-8e77-edba11a2e446_978x290.png) It’s **DeVonta Smith ($7,100)** as the lead guy; no surprise there. His numbers are strong. But he’s expensive, and we aren’t gung-ho on the Eagles offense with their 20.25 implied total. I don’t think we’re going to get anybody in cash on the Eagles side, but this is a good one for game stacking, and Smith would be in the conversation there. **Donayvion Wicks ($4,300)** continues to be the #2 guy for Jalen Hurts. Lemon got a few more looks on Monday, but for the year, Wicks has 18.5% of the targets and a very high 2.3 yards per route run. He’s averaged just five targets per game, so the floor is pretty low, but he’s going to make some big plays and have nice games this year, so I think you can use him in a game stack, but not for cash. Will **Puka Nacua ($7,500)** be a full-go? We should get a read on that before Sunday. He is freakin’ cheap. This guy should be in the mid-8’s, but he hasn’t played since week one and the prices started pretty cheap when the season opened up. ![](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!AFTq!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F3a00f9e7-c156-4020-99c7-b4036eee71a6_1460x665.png "0") Nacua ran 20 routes in game one and posted a ridiculous 45% target-per-route run rate. He’s probably the WR2 in fantasy (JSN) when healthy. The only reason to fade him at $7500 is if you think he’ll be limited in some way. But this is a screaming value for me if we get the reports that he’s a full go. Puka’s return sends the other options way down in projection. **Davante Adams ($7,000)** has smashed the last two weeks, but he’s way too expensive to play with Nacua coming back. Maybe it’s a good deep tourney option if you’re playing the angle that Nacua will be more of a decoy or play part time. But it’s Nacua and Nacua alone on the Rams side of this game. ### Recap Puka Nacua $7,500 is a cash lock if we can somehow know that he’s 100% ready for this one. So that will be the news to monitor. That’s really the only play I can see being super confident in at the price for this game. --- # Dolphins at Vikings ![](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!bY5o!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb5329181-1aff-4e2b-b8d0-6334557ecab4_877x281.png) The Vikings might have the best defense in the league, and they’ll take on a Dolphins offense with no more De’Von Achane for this one. It’s projected to be a gross game with a 38.5 total, and the Vikings are as big of a favorite as they’ll ever be. **Justin Jefferson** is questionable, **Kyler Murray** questionably sucks, but they shouldn’t need much to beat this Dolphins team. It’s a good time to use the Vikes in Survivor. For me, it’s a quick and easy game to cover. **Kyler Murray ($5,300)** is in play as a QB with rushing ability against a bad defense. But he’s been bad this year and only ran twice for 17 yards last week. Without much shootout potential, I don’t think he’ll be the play we want to make, but I’m going to throw him on the list anyways just because he’s going to project reasonably well. The play of the game is **Aaron Jones ($6,000)**. He’s played 81% of the snaps and has 40 carries and six targets in two games with no Jordan Mason. You can’t draw up a better spot for Jones. He’s not very explosive anymore, but he saw 23 opportunities last week (six targets). So it’s going to be pretty tough for him to fail, and a touchdown is pretty likely as well. That’s a great cash play. **Ollie Gordon ($5,500)** steps into a starter’s role. But this is a brutal defense to face and an offense that doesn’t project to score many points at all. I think it’s a bad play. Braelon Allen is the much better buy this week if you’re looking for a backup RB coming into way more work. I suppose if Justin Jefferson misses, **Jordan Addison ($5,300)** would get a big projection boost. And **Jauan Jennings ($3,600)** would become one of the better value plays. But will the Vikings have to throw much? Can Murray throw it to guys? Addison has been more of a home run hitter rather than a WR1 you use all over the field. But there aren’t any other great options behind Jefferson. We’ll revisit this if Jefferson is ruled out; right now, it looks like he’ll play. --- # Broncos at 49ers ![](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!DBvK!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa9fddbca-5086-4634-af5e-2e731cc34d1a_866x269.png) The 49ers are 3-0 and have played some good football. Purdy’s probably been the best QB in the league, and he’s kept the offense humming even with the injuries piling up. This, in theory, is a tough defense to face. The Broncos were death to opposing offenses last year. But Matt Stafford lit them up for 390 yards last week after they held Mahomes and Lawrence below 200 yards in the first two games. The game being in San Francisco matters quite a bit, that’s a much easier spot to play for the home team compared to having to go into Denver. We have **Mike Evans** questionable with a rib thing. You’ll see a Q by his name most weeks as he gets a lot of practices off for being an injury-prone veteran. We’ll see what the news is, but I’d assume he’s playing for now. The Broncos lost Jonah Coleman to the IR, so they’re thinner in the backfield now. It’s still a two-way split, though, so probably not to react to there. ### Quarterbacks **Brock Purdy ($6,700)** has earned the price hike. He’s been the most efficient passer in the league (+0.62 EPA) and has thrown a league-leading nine touchdowns with just one interception. ![](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!NFWO!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Faed23e82-62d2-4b4a-8695-1a10dde8ad94_1460x665.png "0") He’s an every week starter in season-long leagues, but playing him at a season-high price against the Broncos in DFS is a different story. We need optimal plays, and this isn’t one of them. ### Running Backs **Christian McCaffrey ($7,700)** has played 69% of the snaps and taken 25 of the 36 RB carries since that week one matchup where he split work with Kaelon Black. They love him getting the ball in the passing game, and increasingly they’re having fewer options with the injuries. If Evans were to miss, it’s a significant boost to CMC’s already strong projection. The volume hasn’t been super-elite like last year. He has 10, 10, and 15 rushes this year with 8, 4, and 5 targets. He’s hardly in the top 20 in opportunities (rushes + targets) this year. It makes sense that they’d want to take it easy with him, but they just might not end up with much of a choice if these injuries keep going the way they’ve gone. There are many better sports than playing against Denver. You could see another 17-20 opportunity day for CMC in a game where the 49ers only score a couple of touchdowns. Jahmyr Gibbs and Bijan Robinson are not on the slate, so CMC gets pushed up the list because of that. But he’s not a “first click” consideration for me unless Evans is out. Last week in their first game with Jonah Coleman: - JK Dobbins: 17 carries, 5 routes, 2 targets - RJ Harvey: 2 carries, 16 routes, 7 targets Pretty clear work distribution. Dobbins on rushing downs, Harvey on passing downs. I can’t get to either guy. ### Pass Catchers The 49ers are down to this: - Mike Evans (Q) $6,600 - George Kittle $5,100 - Deebo Samuel $5,600 **George Kittle ($5,100)** is probably going to be a cash play you have to make if Evans misses. And he’s in play even if Evans plays. Kittle has run 55 routes this year with an elite 29% TPRR and 3.16 YPRR. He looks like one of the elite pass catchers in the league, and they’re so stripped down via the injury that the ball just has to go his way a ton. The middle of the field is always a good spot to attack the Broncos as Surtain shuts down the WR out wide. Awesome spot for Kittle and definitely a tight end play we’ll be happy to get to if we can afford it. **Deebo Samuel ($5,600)** had one of the craziest results you’ll see last week. He didn’t record a catch but went 80 yards for a score on a lateral. He’s also been given four carries. But his target share is just 14%. He’s behind CMC, Evans, and Kittle in the pecking order. If Evans is out, he moves up, and we’ll want to consider it. But the floor feels pretty low in this tough matchup. I would leave Evans off the list even if he’s going to play. Too tough of a spot and it’s not being made any easier with a rib injury. ### Recap I’ve said “Evans” over and over again, but it matters. I think he’ll play, and then my interest will be muted for this game. CMC and Kittle are in play regardless, but they’d both become much better plays if the 49ers are missing their WR1 (there, I didn’t say his name because the repetition was driving me crazy). --- # Chiefs at Raiders ![](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!qjPn!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Feffbcc98-2c89-422b-942e-0d1a649ed7a7_872x278.png) A showdown of 3-0 teams in Las Vegas! KC is 4th in the league in yards per play, the Raiders are in the middle of the league at #18\. Neither team plays super fast. So we arrive at a 47.5-point total. It’s hard to know if the Raiders are actually good right now. The team grading doesn’t like them: ![](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!TvXN!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7182762d-f7f4-4b38-bd1e-f68901ba3af6_902x238.png) They’ve played the Dolphins, Chargers, and Saints - so a pretty soft schedule. I think this is going to be a Chiefs romp. I’d take them at -4.5. ### Quarterbacks The Chiefs are running plenty with Kenneth Walker, but they’re still one of the highest PROE teams in the league. **Patrick Mahomes ($6,500)** has played well as usual. The question we have for DFS is about if he’ll run this year after the knee injury. So far on the ground: - 7-23-1 - 2-17-0 - 1-1-0 It’s definitely not a scripted part of the game. It never has been, Mahomes running is usually improvised. I think they’ll have him being pretty careful this year, so I wouldn’t count on much rushing stuff. With Kenneth Walker doing what he’s doing on the ground, it’s tough to see a ton of volume from Mahomes. And my angle here is that the Chiefs could cause a blowout. ### Running Backs **Kenneth Walker ($8,200)** is priced about right now after being a steal last week. He has 29, 32, and 20 opportunities in three games. It wasn’t a volume bonanza last week, but he scored two touchdowns to make it work. He’s played 75% of the snaps so far. Maybe they’ll lighten up on his workload as we get into the middle of the season, they have a good looking back up in Emmet Johnson, but the projection will be 20+ touches for one of the best running backs in the game. He’s in play. The Raiders have allowed 4.5 yards per carry so far, so they’re beatable. Walker could end up priced like Gibbs, he has a ten-target game on the sheet already. **Ashton Jeanty ($7,100)** is awfully expensive for a guy averaging 3.3 yards per carry. His efficiency has not been good in his young NFL career. The kicker is that he has 17 targets. But that dropped to four last week in Brock Bowers debut. I think Jeanty is just too expensive, and he ends up being pretty touchdown-dependent. ### Pass Catchers **Brock Bowers ($6,900)** debuted last week and saw 13 targets for a 10-116-1 line in a shootout with the fast-paced Saints. It’s a worse spot for the Raiders this week than last week. But Bowers is basically a WR1 in a tight ends body. He saw a 37% TPRR last week and 3.3 yards per route. Total freak outlier at the tight end position and you could argue he’s underpriced right now. Him taking that much usage takes everybody else off the board on the Raiders side. The Chiefs got **Rashee Rice ($6,400)** going, and now he’s up to a gross-looking price. He was targeted on half of his routes last week, but it’s just a 20% TPRR for the year. His ADoT is lower at 7.4\. With just seven targets in his first two game, there are too many questions about how much the Chiefs need him with Walker in town to play at him $6.4K. **Travis Kelce ($5,000)** is priced about the same as George Kittle, which is just wrong. He went 2-59-1 last week on two targets. That’s about as good as you can possibly two on two targets, he’s probably about $1000 over-priced at this point in his career. ### Recaps I guess it’s just the two studs that making the list in this game. Kenneth Walker and Brock Bowers. --- # Chargers at Seahawks ![](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!euNH!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F917e9e53-d31f-4820-80a8-40816c770d12_868x274.png) Will this just be a Seahawks smash? Are the Chargers really as bad as they’ve looked? If there’s a time to buy low on the Chargers, it’s certainly not in Seattle. So this game’s pretty simple. JSN has 61 xFP for the Seahawks having gone 27-405-6 in three games. Just bonkers stuff. The whole offense runs through him, opposing teams know it’s going to him and still can’t stop it. But he’s $9,100 now. There’s nobody else in this game in any sort of consideration. The Seahawks have split carries like this: Wilson 32, Price 28, Holani 15\. Price missed some snaps in week two or else he’d probably be the leader, but they’re rotation backs. You can play JSN at $9,100, that has been the way to win every week so far. But I doubt it’ll prove to be optimal. --- # Player Pool This is the player pool I’ve created without looking at anything else. I haven’t looked at ETR or what anybody else said yet, here it is: ### Quarterbacks 1. Trevor Lawrence $5,900 2. Geno Smith $5,200 3. Case Keenum $4,600 4. Joe Burrow $6,800 I think it’s pretty clearly a **Trevor Lawrence** week for me. He has the dual-threat ability, his teams in an elite game environment, and he’s less than $6K. I don’t think I need to think much more about it. --- ### Running Backs 1. Chase Brown $6,100 2. Aaron Jones $6,000 3. Christian McCaffrey $7,700 *boost if Evans misses* 4. Kenneth Walker $8,200 5. Derrick Henry $8,400 6. Braelon Allen $5,200 7. Jeremiyah Love $5,800 I like that $5000-$6100 range this week. CMC and Walker are the best plays on the board. If Evans is out, I’m locking in CMC. For $500 less than Walker, I could see myself playing CMC regardless. It’s a super high floor and a good game to be in with the usage becoming more and more concentrated with the injuries. Chase Brown feels so under-priced. It’s always a good thing to play three RBs, so I could fit him and **Aaron Jones** both in there, or go down to **Braelon Allen**. But I’m hesitant on Jones because he’s gotten more expensive and just isn’t very explosive right now. But the matchup (vs. MIA) does not get much better. The concern is that maybe Kyler Murray is terrible and maybe Justin Jefferson won’t play or will be limited, and then the Vikings just won’t be able to get Jones into the endzone. Derrick Henry $8,400 is still tough to play for me at this price. Him being that much more than CMC doesn’t work for me, but it’s a dreaammmm spot for Henry against the Titans at home. --- ### Wide Receivers 1. Puka Nacua $7,500 *if he’s fully healthy* 2. Tee Higgins $6,100 3. Jaxon Smith-Njigba $9,100 4. Parker Washington $6,500 5. Luther Burden $5,200 6. Michael Wilson $5,500 7. Ja’Marr Chase $8,100 8. Garrett Wilson $6,800 9. Matthew Golden $5,400 10. Nico Collins $7,200 11. Kalif Raymond $3,600 12. DeVonta Smith $7,100 13. Deebo Samuel $5,600 *if Evans misses* 14. Brian Thomas $4,300 *buy low for tourneys only* I really hope we get more good news on Puka Nacua, because he should rip that $7,500 price to shreds if he’s back to his normal health and workload (or even close to it to be honest). Tee Higgins is too cheap and in the best game of the week, Parker Washington is a stud still not priced like one, and I like the floor we’re getting on Luther Burden. Those are my favorite plays; I highly doubt I’ll ever pay $9100 for a wide receiver this year when there are stud RBs on the board. ### Tight Ends 1. George Kittle $5,100 2. Brock Bowers $6,900 3. Kenyon Sadiq $4,000 *(if Mason Taylor remains out)* 4. Trey McBride $6,500 5. Dalton Kincaid $5,300 6. Brenton Strange $3,200 It’s a good week to spend some money on tight end. **George Kittle** and **Brock Bowers** aren’t cheap, but they’re probably *too* cheap for their roles. I’d like to get to one of them this week. But sometimes we can’t justify it. I’ve thrown Brenton Strange on the list as a punt play. He gets only a few targets per game, but he’s cheap, involved in the red zone, and playing in our favorite game of the week. ### Defenses 1. Seahawks $3,500 2. Ravens $3,800 3. Bears $3,000 4. Rams $2,600 5. Cardinals $2,500 Feels like the Rams are too cheap at $2,600\. The Eagles don’t typically turn it over a bunch, but that’s a good defense against an offense that was just shut down by the Bears. This lineup came together pretty nicely: > QB Trevor Lawrence > RB Christian McCaffrey > RB Chase Brown > WR Parker Washington > WR Tee Higgins > WR Kalif Raymond > TE George Kittle > FL Aaron Jones > DST Rams That leaves $400 to play with. It’s a lot of CIN/JAX, which is always a little unnerving. If the game duds, we’re cooked. But those are the best plays and how they fit together, I think. That’s it for week four! We’ll keep an eye on the injuries and any extreme weather situations and hopefully get an update on Saturday night or Sunday morning. Thanks for being a subscriber and reading along!